NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	5.6 [699]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +13.4%
Denver Nuggets	109		Comeback	2.3 [799]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -11.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	22	57%	0.12	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Antoine Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	16	44%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	13	58%	0.06	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	4	60%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	10	68%	0.16	8	-0.24	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	10	85%	0.21	4	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.01	5	61%	0.13	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.01	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.02	13	48%	0.10	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.03
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.04	13	73%	0.16	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	60%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jason Hart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.00	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.5	34.2	19.5	28.5	3.4	32.6	148.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +15.4%

DEN +27.9%

DAL -7.1%

DEN +13.9%

DAL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	13.4	15.5	96.9	113.5	106.4
season	15.6	14.4		108.9	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.2	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.0	18.0	15.4	14.9	16.3
DEN	14.9	12.0	13.4	13.3	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-17	20	12.0	16.5	-4.48	21.0	13.0	7.97
James Singleton	5	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-16	18	12.6	16.5	-3.89	20.4	13.0	7.42
Josh Howard	71	68	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-10	6	15.7	17.9	-2.20	13.5	13.0	0.57
Jose Juan Barea	43	42	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-16	18	17.1	15.6	1.50	15.2	12.0	3.20
Erick Dampier	42	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-8	2	17.9	15.1	2.73	13.9	13.0	0.90
Brandon Bass	25	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-10	6	15.5	16.6	-1.10	13.8	13.2	0.64
Ryan Hollins	38	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-5	-4	15.8	16.6	-0.87	11.9	14.3	-2.48
Dirk Nowitzki	86	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	16.2	16.8	-0.61	13.2	14.2	-1.00
Jason Kidd	80	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	-1	-12	15.7	19.0	-3.31	13.2	14.2	-0.99
Antoine Wright	27	28	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-4	-6	17.9	15.7	2.20	13.0	13.5	-0.57
Jason Terry	69	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.05	-20	6	-26	16.7	15.3	1.45	12.0	16.6	-4.57

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	58	60	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.20	28	-14	42	11.7	15.9	-4.23	17.2	14.9	2.25
Anthony Carter	45	46	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-1	16	12.2	14.4	-2.23	15.7	16.8	-1.09
J.R. Smith	65	66	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.09	22	-8	30	12.2	15.9	-3.75	16.5	16.0	0.49
Nene	73	74	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-2	18	13.5	12.9	0.59	16.7	15.1	1.61
Carmelo Anthony	58	59	0.28	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	3	8	13.8	12.7	1.13	16.8	15.6	1.22
Chauncey Billups	76	77	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.02	8	6	2	13.2	14.0	-0.87	16.7	15.0	1.71
Jason Hart	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	24.0	13.3	10.75	7.0	16.5	-9.49
Johan Petro	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	19	-24	23.3	13.0	10.29	5.7	16.6	-10.96
Kenyon Martin	55	56	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	20	-26	13.9	12.7	1.15	16.0	16.7	-0.73
Linas Kleiza	13	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	20	-26	16.5	12.9	3.67	14.1	16.7	-2.51
Dahntay Jones	33	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.27	-11	25	-36	16.3	11.8	4.52	15.6	16.7	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 78, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1	94.5%
DEN 108, POR 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.5%
BOS 92, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.41,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.79,0.74,0.87,0.75,0.67,0.84,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%