NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	5.1 [811]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +10.5%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	1.1 [1253]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAS): -14.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.04,0.1	0.12	0.04	0.07	18	60%	0.15	2	-0.05	14	100%	0.09
Patty Mills	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.02	15	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	40%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Davis Bertans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	59%	0.05	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	5	100%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Green	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	15	30%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	22	53%	0.13	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	19	54%	0.16	5	-0.12	8	100%	0.04
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	47%	0.00	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Quinn Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.5	28.2	15.8	31.2	3.4	36.5	146.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +54.8%

SAS -16.1%

SAS -0.7%

GSW +13.1%

SAS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	13.7	14.7	93.8	104.2	107.5
season	15.5	13.7		106.7	112.6
opponent	15.1	14.5		105.8	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.3	16.0	18.0	12.9	16.3
GSW	12.2	13.3	12.0	17.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryn Forbes	12	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-11	14	17.6	16.1	1.48	18.4	12.9	5.45
Davis Bertans	35	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-11	14	14.1	17.5	-3.49	13.3	13.9	-0.65
Tony Parker	30	31	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-6	4	16.1	16.4	-0.32	12.4	14.3	-1.97
Pau Gasol	35	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-3	-2	16.8	16.0	0.84	11.6	15.0	-3.42
Dejounte Murray	36	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.07	-10	2	-12	18.2	15.1	3.07	13.8	13.6	0.21
Danny Green	33	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	2	-12	17.7	15.5	2.18	13.3	13.8	-0.49
Rudy Gay	63	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.19	-2	-6	4	16.7	15.5	1.17	14.8	11.6	3.18
Kyle Anderson	35	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	-1	-6	15.8	16.6	-0.76	13.4	13.9	-0.50
Manu Ginobili	50	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-6	4	15.6	17.0	-1.46	13.1	14.3	-1.22
LaMarcus Aldridge	82	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-5	2	16.2	16.6	-0.37	13.7	13.4	0.37
Patty Mills	74	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	15.8	17.8	-2.02	14.3	11.9	2.42

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	80	83	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	0	8	13.3	15.7	-2.43	16.3	16.1	0.25
Draymond Green	76	79	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	5	-2	14.8	9.1	5.72	16.1	16.9	-0.81
Shaun Livingston	40	38	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.00	12	-4	16	11.7	15.1	-3.38	15.8	16.6	-0.73
Klay Thompson	79	83	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	7	-6	14.9	7.4	7.51	16.1	17.6	-1.58
Andre Iguodala	59	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	6	-4	14.5	12.3	2.22	16.3	16.3	0.05
David West	40	38	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	4	0	12.6	14.5	-1.83	15.6	16.7	-1.08
Nick Young	14	13	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	4	0	13.4	13.7	-0.30	15.3	16.4	-1.13
Quinn Cook	16	16	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	3	2	10.3	14.4	-4.05	17.1	16.1	1.00
Kevon Looney	46	46	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.21	-3	11	-14	12.7	14.6	-1.87	15.8	16.7	-0.84
JaVale McGee	25	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	4	0	14.4	13.4	0.92	19.6	15.0	4.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 86, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
WAS 89, NOH 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.4%
SAC 96, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%