NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	86		Excitement	3.8 [1027]		MVP	Rodney Buford (MEM): +7.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	1.1 [1022]		LVP	George McCloud (DEN): -10.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	5	17%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	12	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	-0.06	9	33%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	7	57%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	64%	0.05	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Mengke Bateer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	6	53%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	11	37%	-0.05	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.02	-0.05	10	52%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Antonis Fotsis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.05	0.01	-0.10	8	40%	0.06	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	65%	0.04	2	-0.00	11	73%	-0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	82%	0.07	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	-0.08	10	32%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	59%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	14	58%	0.05	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	27.1	15.4	25.4	2.5	25.6	124.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +46.2%

MEM +5.3%

DEN -5.1%

MEM +1.3%

MEM +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	16.5	15.0	15.6	95.6	104.3	102.3
season	16.1	15.7		99.7	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.2		103.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.5	17.0	19.2	12.3	16.5
MEM	14.5	13.0	15.0	17.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-17	23	10.1	17.2	-7.07	18.1	14.7	3.42
Chris Andersen	23	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-18	25	12.3	17.9	-5.55	17.4	14.1	3.31
Juwan Howard	50	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-5	-1	17.8	14.9	2.89	14.8	15.3	-0.57
Zendon Hamilton	21	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.10	-9	-2	-7	16.5	16.5	-0.00	12.9	15.7	-2.80
Kenny Satterfield	43	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.13	-2	-9	7	15.0	17.8	-2.83	16.1	14.0	2.11
Donnell Harvey	35	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-8	5	14.5	17.7	-3.17	16.4	14.1	2.21
Calbert Cheaney	51	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-3	-5	18.4	13.9	4.46	14.7	15.4	-0.70
Mengke Bateer	28	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-12	13	14.4	17.4	-3.08	15.5	14.8	0.68
George McCloud	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-3	-5	17.7	14.7	2.97	14.6	15.6	-1.07
Ryan Bowen	41	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-3	-5	18.1	15.1	3.06	14.5	15.5	-0.99
Voshon Lenard	35	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	2	-15	15.7	16.9	-1.20	14.3	15.5	-1.15
James Posey	61	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.02	-12	1	-13	17.7	14.0	3.71	14.2	16.8	-2.62

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	66	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.09	21	-10	31	13.8	18.1	-4.35	17.6	13.7	3.86
Pau Gasol	70	68	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.16	23	-12	35	13.9	18.5	-4.59	17.8	12.3	5.57
Jason Williams	46	46	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.03	14	-3	17	14.5	15.6	-1.07	18.6	14.2	4.36
Stromile Swift	66	62	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	7	-3	14.9	15.3	-0.34	15.3	19.1	-3.76
Rodney Buford	70	69	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	12	-13	15.8	12.7	3.15	17.0	14.6	2.42
Antonis Fotsis	44	42	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	10	-9	15.2	14.9	0.35	14.2	18.5	-4.29
Lorenzen Wright	31	33	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	5	1	15.4	14.8	0.60	18.3	15.4	2.88
Will Solomon	53	49	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	13	-15	15.9	13.9	2.01	14.2	19.2	-5.04
Eddie Gill	19	17	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.33	-11	22	-33	18.9	14.0	4.87	11.8	17.6	-5.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 76, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
ORL 85, GSW 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.92,0.84,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ATL 88, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%