NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	4.8 [874]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +28.4%
Toronto Raptors	116		Comeback	1.1 [988]		LVP	Cory Joseph (TOR): -8.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	9	72%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	58%	0.06	2	-0.02	8	75%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	13	53%	0.04	4	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	17	41%	-0.00	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.10	-0.02	20	69%	0.38	4	-0.10	11	73%	-0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.01	-0.00	5	100%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	8	61%	0.07	0	0.00	12	42%	-0.07
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	48%	0.00	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	0.02	29	43%	-0.02	3	-0.06	7	57%	-0.03
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	8	6%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.4	33.6	16.8	32.5	3.5	37.5	155.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +18.0%

TOR +7.9%

TOR +28.8%

MIA -2.1%

MIA -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	14.9	96.7	126.1	105.1
season	15.5	16.1		104.5	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	15.0	15.8	13.0	14.9
TOR	14.3	15.6	15.5	20.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	37	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-31	35	15.6	14.5	1.10	18.1	15.1	2.92
Dorell Wright	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-25	23	12.0	15.1	-3.07	24.7	16.0	8.76
Gerald Green	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-25	23	11.8	15.1	-3.31	22.3	16.0	6.38
Josh McRoberts	28	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-28	29	14.6	15.1	-0.42	18.1	15.6	2.55
Udonis Haslem	2	1	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-23	19	4.0	15.2	-11.18	6.0	16.5	-10.48
Josh Richardson	49	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-26	25	16.2	13.5	2.63	17.0	15.6	1.41
Justise Winslow	69	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.35	-24	-3	-21	15.4	13.4	2.06	16.1	17.1	-1.01
Goran Dragic	76	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.31	-26	-1	-25	14.0	19.2	-5.22	15.8	19.1	-3.30
Joe Johnson	63	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.31	-26	-1	-25	15.2	14.4	0.81	15.7	17.5	-1.78
Luol Deng	59	58	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.31	-27	0	-27	14.8	15.1	-0.29	15.4	18.0	-2.59
Dwyane Wade	68	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.32	-28	1	-29	14.9	15.1	-0.20	15.6	18.5	-2.88

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	81	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.29	31	-4	35	15.9	19.8	-3.92	15.6	10.2	5.39
DeMarre Carroll	64	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.07	21	6	15	15.2	19.1	-3.88	16.3	11.5	4.84
Bismack Biyombo	79	79	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.29	25	2	23	16.1	18.2	-2.17	15.4	12.2	3.15
Patrick Patterson	73	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.21	19	8	11	16.2	17.1	-0.93	14.1	18.0	-3.86
DeMar DeRozan	70	69	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.16	15	12	3	15.4	19.5	-4.05	14.8	15.3	-0.49
Cory Joseph	35	36	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.30	14	13	1	19.1	14.7	4.38	12.9	16.2	-3.36
Terrence Ross	33	32	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	25	-23	17.5	15.7	1.83	15.7	14.5	1.11
Jason Thompson	13	13	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	25	-23	18.2	16.1	2.17	12.2	15.4	-3.15
Delon Wright	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	25	-23	24.7	16.0	8.76	12.0	15.1	-3.07
Norman Powell	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	25	-23	24.7	16.0	8.76	12.0	15.1	-3.07
Lucas Nogueira	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	26	-25	15.0	16.4	-1.40	13.5	15.0	-1.47
James Johnson	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	26	-25	15.0	16.4	-1.40	13.5	15.0	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 91, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
ORL 92, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	95.5%
CHI 94, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%