NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	92		Excitement	4.4 [951]		MVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): +12.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	105		Comeback	1.0 [1214]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (ORL): -16.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	86%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.00	0.04	6	85%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.02	8	69%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	6	65%	0.06	3	-0.07	8	87%	-0.00
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	19	48%	0.00	3	-0.07	10	50%	-0.05
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	0.01	12	33%	-0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	0.01	17	67%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	13	66%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.07	0	0.00	9	44%	-0.05
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	4	83%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	24	47%	0.04	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	31.1	15.6	24.3	2.5	32.3	132.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +20.5%

CLE +1.9%

CLE +9.0%

CLE +16.7%

CLE +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	16.7	16.8	15.6	107.0	122.1	104.4
season	16.4	16.2		104.4	105.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.9	16.9	19.4	14.0	16.7
CLE	14.4	15.9	18.5	18.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	6	5	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-17	21	22.2	16.3	5.88	21.2	16.5	4.68
Mario Kasun	9	9	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.08	4	-17	21	13.6	17.1	-3.51	19.0	16.5	2.47
Carlos Arroyo	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-12	11	13.1	17.1	-4.01	20.7	16.3	4.33
Grant Hill	27	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-13	13	19.7	15.3	4.44	16.4	17.0	-0.58
Pat Garrity	49	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-13	13	15.3	18.5	-3.14	16.6	17.1	-0.52
Keyon Dooling	45	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-11	9	16.7	16.7	-0.07	15.8	17.8	-1.99
Steve Francis	48	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	-3	-7	15.8	17.8	-2.00	17.7	15.6	2.17
Tony Battie	37	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	0	-13	18.5	15.3	3.14	17.1	16.6	0.52
DeShawn Stevenson	76	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	0	-13	16.8	16.0	0.79	17.3	12.6	4.74
Hedo Turkoglu	53	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.04	-13	0	-13	16.5	17.1	-0.64	15.5	19.0	-3.50
Dwight Howard	71	72	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.01	-21	8	-29	16.6	17.0	-0.37	16.2	19.8	-3.58

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	77	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.05	21	-8	29	16.4	19.8	-3.34	16.8	16.1	0.66
Sasha Pavlovic	69	69	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.09	20	-7	27	17.0	15.8	1.28	16.9	16.1	0.80
Drew Gooden	62	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-2	17	16.4	17.8	-1.45	16.8	16.5	0.31
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	54	55	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.03	14	-1	15	18.5	13.9	4.54	18.3	13.9	4.42
Eric Snow	55	56	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	6	1	17.3	15.9	1.39	16.4	17.3	-0.92
Donyell Marshall	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	10	-7	15.8	17.5	-1.67	17.7	16.0	1.76
Damon Jones	41	40	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	17	-21	16.7	16.9	-0.16	16.7	16.7	0.10
Anderson Varejao	19	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.15	-6	19	-25	14.7	17.4	-2.70	10.8	18.4	-7.52
Stephen Graham	18	18	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	18	-23	16.4	16.9	-0.44	15.7	17.0	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 97, ATL 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.87,0.95,1,1,0.99,1	96.1%
MIA 89, TOR 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
CHI 90, MEM 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%