NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	4.7 [864]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +8.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	104		Comeback	1.2 [760]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -10.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.00	0.07	20	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	16	47%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	7	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	14	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	14	43%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.01	0.05	14	71%	0.14	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.04	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	17	57%	0.08	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Bobby Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	11	46%	-0.00	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	3.4	34.5	19.4	29.6	3.7	29.0	141.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +48.6%

MEM +11.7%

CHI -3.8%

CHI -10.8%

MEM +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MEM	NBA	CHI	MEM	NBA
this game	15.3	15.7	15.4	96.8	111.8	105.7
season	15.0	14.9		102.2	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.5		109.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.3	14.2	15.0	14.9	15.3
MEM	14.8	14.6	15.0	18.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-13	12	13.0	15.4	-2.40	15.0	15.7	-0.70
Joe Smith	36	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-13	12	16.4	14.6	1.82	14.3	16.5	-2.27
Tyrus Thomas	36	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-14	14	14.0	16.1	-2.08	16.7	15.0	1.73
Joakim Noah	44	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.12	0	-14	14	14.2	16.3	-2.04	17.6	14.0	3.61
Thabo Sefolosha	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	-9	4	15.7	14.6	1.08	15.4	16.1	-0.77
Kirk Hinrich	59	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-1	-12	15.9	14.2	1.77	15.4	16.2	-0.89
Ben Gordon	67	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-7	0	14.2	18.1	-3.85	16.0	14.9	1.10
Andres Nocioni	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-4	-6	14.3	16.6	-2.32	16.7	14.5	2.21
Luol Deng	52	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	3	-20	16.6	13.7	2.89	14.3	17.3	-3.00
Ben Wallace	58	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	2	-18	16.3	13.6	2.73	15.1	16.8	-1.69

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	81	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-3	20	14.8	21.5	-6.70	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Pau Gasol	78	77	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.03	17	-3	20	15.6	16.1	-0.56	15.6	13.9	1.65
Rudy Gay	82	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-3	20	15.7	15.2	0.55	15.4	14.7	0.73
Mike Conley	63	64	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.05	13	1	12	15.0	17.1	-2.07	15.8	14.1	1.74
Juan Carlos Navarro	32	31	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	6	2	17.4	14.8	2.65	14.3	15.8	-1.52
Hakim Warrick	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	13	-12	17.4	14.4	2.91	14.6	15.8	-1.19
Stromile Swift	14	14	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	14	-14	18.9	15.1	3.84	16.1	15.2	0.91
Kyle Lowry	30	29	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	13	-12	17.1	15.0	2.07	14.1	15.8	-1.74
Bobby Jones	15	15	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	12	-10	14.4	15.9	-1.51	14.9	15.4	-0.44
Darko Milicic	31	33	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	20	-26	13.2	16.9	-3.71	16.6	14.6	1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 77, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.5%
CHA 76, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
ORL 92, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	95.4%