NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	77		Excitement	4.4 [910]		MVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): +12.9%
Utah Jazz	87		Comeback	1.0 [856]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -13.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Geary	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.02	0.05	14	59%	0.02	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	10	54%	-0.04	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	16	45%	-0.10	2	-0.03	15	73%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	11	46%	0.00	6	-0.14	6	83%	0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	8	75%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	14	66%	0.12	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Stockton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.03	6	55%	-0.05	1	-0.03	10	80%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.18	0.00	-0.04	21	43%	-0.06	4	-0.08	14	71%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	41.0	2.5	27.6	17.4	30.2	2.5	32.2	153.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +31.7%

UTA +3.2%

UTA +1.9%

UTA +11.5%

UTA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	17.2	16.7	15.6	91.7	101.2	102.5
season	15.9	15.9		100.9	108.1
opponent	15.9	15.9		102.1	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.4	17.9	17.8	15.2	17.2
UTA	19.5	15.7	17.4	14.8	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	9.0	17.3	-8.29	9.0	16.8	-7.79
Reggie Geary	10	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-9	8	18.5	17.0	1.49	16.7	16.7	0.06
Carl Herrera	7	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-9	8	20.3	16.9	3.38	15.5	16.8	-1.29
David Robinson	68	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-11	12	16.9	18.4	-1.54	17.3	14.2	3.14
Vinny Del Negro	61	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-6	2	16.4	19.3	-2.85	16.5	17.3	-0.82
Chuck Person	26	28	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	2	-14	18.2	16.8	1.40	16.7	16.7	0.08
Jaren Jackson	66	67	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-9	8	17.1	17.4	-0.32	16.4	17.6	-1.13
Tim Duncan	65	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	1	-12	17.6	15.7	1.88	16.9	15.8	1.10
Will Perdue	42	44	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	4	-18	17.3	17.0	0.29	16.4	17.0	-0.68
Avery Johnson	74	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	17.0	18.5	-1.49	16.7	16.7	-0.06

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	0	10	17.0	14.1	2.89	17.1	17.7	-0.62
Jeff Hornacek	61	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	1	8	17.0	16.0	0.98	17.2	17.3	-0.11
Bryon Russell	68	67	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.23	4	6	-2	16.8	16.4	0.32	17.3	16.8	0.46
Howard Eisley	38	37	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	2	6	17.1	16.4	0.78	17.1	17.3	-0.24
John Stockton	48	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	8	-6	16.4	17.1	-0.78	17.3	17.1	0.24
Greg Foster	49	49	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	7	-4	17.0	16.4	0.61	17.1	17.3	-0.16
Chris Morris	19	18	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	4	2	15.8	17.0	-1.17	17.2	17.2	-0.03
Antoine Carr	30	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	8	-6	16.1	17.0	-0.97	16.8	17.4	-0.66
Greg Ostertag	16	13	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	5	0	15.6	16.9	-1.32	18.8	16.9	1.87
Shandon Anderson	24	25	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.04	1	9	-8	16.5	16.8	-0.27	17.0	17.3	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 86, IND 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
UTA 89, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.88,0.81,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ATL 88, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%