NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	100		Excitement	9.4 [103]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +39.8%
Washington Wizards	97		Comeback	3.2 [259]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (CHI): -17.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.4	0.06	0.34	0.00	7	68%	0.43	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0.36	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.54,0.54,0.43,0.36	0.27	0.12	0.03	19	83%	0.50	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	12	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	8	59%	0.00	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.12
Tony Snell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	4	43%	0.01	4	-0.13	6	33%	-0.07
D.J. Augustin	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17	-0.07	-0.04	0.05	15	38%	-0.03	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.39,0.35,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.19	0.02	18	58%	0.29	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
John Wall	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.02,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	14	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.15
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	16	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.16	0.07	-0.03	15	33%	0.05	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.15	-0.00	12	50%	-0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.6	28.2	17.5	24.5	3.5	52.2	155.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +49.9%

CHI +13.0%

CHI +14.2%

WAS -29.6%

CHI +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.9	15.1	109.9	105.4	105.2
season	16.3	15.1		101.1	103.8
opponent	15.5	15.3		102.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.2	15.6	16.6	15.2	15.6
WAS	13.0	16.4	20.2	14.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	57	58	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	1	1	15.8	15.2	0.62	16.1	15.5	0.60
Kirk Hinrich	60	62	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.63	-4	7	-11	15.7	15.4	0.26	14.7	18.4	-3.74
Jimmy Butler	78	80	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	-2	7	15.4	16.5	-1.10	15.3	20.0	-4.74
Joakim Noah	76	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	4	-5	16.1	13.1	2.95	16.3	13.9	2.33
Mike Dunleavy	73	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	-4	11	15.7	15.1	0.67	16.7	12.8	3.83
Tony Snell	19	18	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	7	-11	14.2	16.0	-1.75	16.5	15.7	0.77
Carlos Boozer	46	46	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	-4	11	15.4	15.8	-0.32	15.9	15.9	0.02
D.J. Augustin	46	46	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.15	3	0	3	15.2	16.0	-0.85	16.2	15.6	0.59

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	2	2	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.11	-3	0	-3	1.5	16.2	-14.70	1.5	15.9	-14.41
Drew Gooden	9	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-7	11	14.9	16.0	-1.10	17.7	15.3	2.37
Trevor Ariza	76	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.46	11	-14	25	15.3	18.8	-3.55	15.8	14.5	1.35
Nene	56	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	7	-17	16.7	14.6	2.09	15.4	15.9	-0.53
Trevor Booker	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	3	-9	17.2	14.7	2.50	16.0	15.2	0.80
John Wall	73	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.42	6	-9	15	14.9	19.6	-4.66	15.6	15.4	0.19
Andre Miller	20	18	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	5	-13	18.9	15.0	3.92	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Marcin Gortat	72	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.53	6	-9	15	15.5	17.2	-1.75	16.0	14.0	1.98
Martell Webster	33	32	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	8	-19	17.9	14.7	3.16	14.9	16.0	-1.06
Bradley Beal	77	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	1	-5	15.2	19.1	-3.89	15.3	17.3	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.46,0.76,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 100, MIA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.27,0.38,0.55,0.43,0.58,0	90.6%
SAC 99, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.69,0.42,0	90.0%
DAL 118, SEA 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.77,0.85,0	89.5%