NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	9.2 [98]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +49.3%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.8 [383]		LVP	Kendrick Perkins (BOS): -22.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.49	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.49	0.09	0.40	-0.00	23	59%	0.60	3	-0.11	8	75%	-0.04
Kevin Garnett	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	14	53%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.33,0.22,0.08	0.15	-0.06	0.01	16	64%	0.08	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Glen Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	16	47%	-0.07	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.06	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.13	0.23	0.00	5	100%	0.39	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.06
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	11	64%	0.13	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.06	-0.06	0.08	-0.13	0.01	26	62%	0.15	5	-0.21	3	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	6	42%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	8	50%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.7	35.2	19.8	30.0	3.6	39.3	157.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +14.4%

BOS +0.8%

BOS +20.8%

BOS +10.0%

BOS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.9	15.3	109.9	105.4	106.0
season	15.5	16.2		105.7	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	12.7	18.3	16.1	15.4
MIA	15.8	17.3	14.5	15.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	83	85	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-6	14	15.5	14.9	0.58	15.9	15.4	0.57
Michael Finley	8	8	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-8	18	12.6	15.7	-3.05	17.7	15.7	2.03
Glen Davis	35	36	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.04	14	-12	26	15.4	15.4	0.04	16.7	15.4	1.40
Rasheed Wallace	19	21	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	11	-9	20	15.7	15.3	0.42	17.4	15.5	1.92
Paul Pierce	83	86	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.47	-6	8	-14	15.7	12.6	3.05	15.5	20.3	-4.75
Tony Allen	26	27	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	-1	4	16.7	14.9	1.85	15.8	15.9	-0.11
Ray Allen	73	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.38	-7	9	-16	14.9	17.6	-2.68	15.9	16.0	-0.14
Kevin Garnett	68	69	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.43	-13	15	-28	15.3	15.7	-0.39	15.3	17.5	-2.11
Kendrick Perkins	60	59	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.16	-10	12	-22	15.4	15.4	-0.02	15.7	16.1	-0.40

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	84	83	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.15	5	-7	12	15.3	21.3	-6.02	15.6	13.2	2.36
Carlos Arroyo	35	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-1	0	17.9	14.7	3.24	15.9	15.1	0.82
Jermaine O'Neal	35	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	2	-6	17.4	15.0	2.46	15.7	15.2	0.52
Michael Beasley	56	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-8	14	15.7	16.2	-0.58	15.7	14.9	0.89
Joel Anthony	28	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	6	-14	13.9	16.8	-2.86	15.1	15.5	-0.46
Quentin Richardson	31	32	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	2	-6	15.8	16.0	-0.18	15.5	15.4	0.10
Udonis Haslem	67	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-4	6	16.1	15.3	0.81	15.1	16.2	-1.16
Dorell Wright	63	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-2	2	15.7	16.3	-0.60	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Mario Chalmers	66	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.40	-6	4	-10	15.8	16.1	-0.31	14.9	16.7	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.27,0.38,0.55,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, WAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.46,0.76,0.58,0	90.6%
ORL 107, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,0	90.5%
MIA 83, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.42,0	90.4%