NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	8.4 [176]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +27.7%
Chicago Bulls	80		Comeback	1.4 [459]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -22.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.28	0.00	0.27	-0.01	15	43%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	18	44%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	-0.01	5	30%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	12	37%	-0.15	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.01	15	45%	-0.07	4	-0.15	14	71%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.34,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.09	-0.03	30	56%	0.23	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.05	0.01	13	39%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bill Wennington	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	2	100%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	12	54%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	7	29%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Parish	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.14	0.00	1	0%	-0.08	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	24.3	15.7	28.6	2.8	36.2	131.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +1.7%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +23.2%

MIA +9.5%

MIA +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	18.9	17.1	15.6	103.8	100.0	104.4
season	15.8	15.5		103.1	110.5
opponent	16.1	16.3		99.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.4	17.0	19.4	21.1	18.9
CHI	16.7	17.3	15.8	18.9	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	52	51	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.61	-1	4	-5	20.4	16.0	4.42	17.2	17.0	0.25
Dan Majerle	69	70	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.27	5	-2	7	19.3	15.9	3.44	17.2	16.7	0.49
Tim Hardaway	62	62	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	3	-3	19.5	16.7	2.85	17.7	15.2	2.53
Alonzo Mourning	55	56	0.39	0.10	0.29	0.42	-1	4	-5	19.8	16.9	2.90	15.8	20.2	-4.40
P.J. Brown	70	70	0.36	0.13	0.23	0.45	-3	6	-9	19.4	15.1	4.31	17.2	16.4	0.83
Ike Austin	40	40	0.13	0.36	-0.23	-0.13	9	-6	15	16.5	21.2	-4.65	18.5	15.7	2.80
Voshon Lenard	34	33	0.09	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	0	3	15.7	21.2	-5.51	17.2	17.1	0.10
Gary Grant	18	18	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	0	3	16.7	19.5	-2.85	15.2	17.7	-2.53

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	32	34	0.19	-0.68	0.87	0.04	5	-8	13	18.7	16.1	2.66	19.1	18.7	0.32
Randy Brown	21	21	0.06	-0.55	0.62	0.03	1	-4	5	17.3	17.1	0.22	17.0	19.5	-2.54
Robert Parish	17	16	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.28	11	-14	25	17.1	17.1	-0.08	23.3	17.8	5.55
Bill Wennington	22	21	-0.18	-0.31	0.13	-0.09	-3	0	-3	15.9	17.6	-1.68	20.4	18.3	2.04
Ron Harper	34	34	-0.27	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	5	-13	16.6	17.5	-0.88	18.9	18.8	0.06
Michael Jordan	69	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-6	9	16.8	19.3	-2.49	19.4	15.6	3.75
Scottie Pippen	65	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	16.7	19.1	-2.47	19.2	17.6	1.58
Jason Caffey	32	32	-0.44	-0.05	-0.39	-0.00	-15	12	-27	18.4	16.3	2.08	15.2	21.3	-6.09
Toni Kukoc	46	45	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	4	-11	17.8	16.1	1.70	17.5	20.6	-3.07
Dennis Rodman	62	62	-0.64	0.15	-0.79	-0.58	-2	-1	-1	16.7	18.7	-2.06	19.7	15.9	3.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 105, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.23,0.28,0.44,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.23,0.27,0	92.2%
MIA 87, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.16,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.42,0	92.1%
BKN 96, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.28,0	91.4%