NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	9.0 [131]		MVP	Grant Hill (ORL): +25.6%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.8 [625]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -7.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0,0.11,0.26	0.07	0.21	0.02	15	63%	0.41	3	-0.15	8	75%	0.03
Darko Milicic	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	7	55%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	2	114%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.10	-0.00	19	43%	0.13	2	-0.05	15	73%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	80%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.08	-0.00	11	64%	0.06	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	12	59%	0.16	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Jason Kapono	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	10	75%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.00	11	59%	0.12	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	12	46%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Robert Hite	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.12,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.08	-0.01	20	55%	0.16	5	-0.22	20	75%	0.06
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.7	27.7	15.0	26.2	2.5	43.9	146.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +55.4%

MIA -9.1%

MIA -7.1%

MIA -2.0%

ORL +12.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	15.9	15.4	118.9	113.0	104.5
season	15.9	16.0		103.4	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.9	15.2	16.9	14.2	15.7
MIA	16.6	14.8	17.4	15.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	34	36	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.20	16	-13	29	14.6	16.4	-1.73	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Keith Bogans	26	28	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.50	4	-1	5	15.4	15.9	-0.47	15.4	16.2	-0.76
Darko Milicic	56	57	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.20	13	-10	23	15.6	16.0	-0.45	15.8	16.1	-0.35
Dwight Howard	71	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	1	1	15.8	15.4	0.45	16.7	13.4	3.23
Grant Hill	66	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	4	-5	15.3	16.9	-1.57	15.7	16.4	-0.65
Keyon Dooling	19	21	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	-4	11	15.9	15.7	0.29	15.6	16.0	-0.40
Trevor Ariza	22	24	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	5	-7	15.7	15.7	-0.05	14.7	16.4	-1.70
Jameer Nelson	58	58	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.31	-13	16	-29	15.9	15.4	0.44	15.8	16.2	-0.40
Tony Battie	38	39	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.10	-9	12	-21	16.4	15.2	1.26	15.8	16.0	-0.22
Hedo Turkoglu	60	59	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.11	-2	5	-7	16.3	14.5	1.78	16.6	14.7	1.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	58	56	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.31	15	-18	33	15.6	16.4	-0.82	16.6	14.4	2.20
Dwyane Wade	81	79	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.39	14	-17	31	15.8	17.1	-1.33	16.1	12.7	3.41
Jason Kapono	63	63	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-12	21	15.7	16.5	-0.87	16.1	14.9	1.14
Robert Hite	10	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	1	-5	13.6	16.2	-2.61	13.9	15.9	-2.04
Udonis Haslem	66	66	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.39	9	-12	21	16.1	15.6	0.48	16.3	14.0	2.29
Dorell Wright	71	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-9	15	15.9	16.0	-0.16	15.5	16.5	-1.00
Michael Doleac	22	23	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	10	-23	17.7	15.4	2.31	14.7	16.1	-1.44
Earl Barron	21	20	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.02	-17	14	-31	16.4	15.8	0.59	13.8	16.3	-2.41
Gary Payton	25	22	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.06	-18	15	-33	16.8	15.6	1.20	15.3	15.9	-0.53
Antoine Walker	43	39	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.17	-16	13	-29	15.8	16.0	-0.25	14.7	16.5	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 96, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.28,0	92.1%
NOH 96, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.32,0.21,0.45,0.42,0	92.0%
CHH 78, SAS 73	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.18,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.37,0.29,0.27,0	91.9%