NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	78		Excitement	7.5 [317]		MVP	Bryce Drew (CHH): +8.3%
San Antonio Spurs	73		Comeback	2.6 [129]		LVP	Baron Davis (CHH): -40.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryce Drew	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	9	83%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	4	71%	0.08	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.07
Jamaal Magloire	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	53%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Stacey Augmon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lee Nailon	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	14	43%	0.03	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.07	-0.01	14	29%	-0.09	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.29,-0.4	-0.17	-0.23	-0.00	15	19%	-0.37	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	8	61%	0.02	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	11	29%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	8	12%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-0.18	0.02	15	67%	-0.04	4	-0.12	13	85%	-0.03
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.28	-0.28	-0.12	-0.18	-0.03	10	10%	-0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.4	28.5	16.4	28.4	2.7	32.2	135.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +24.0%

CHH +5.7%

CHH +21.8%

SAS -1.3%

SAS -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	SAS	NBA	CHH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	16.3	15.6	85.7	81.1	102.3
season	15.9	15.8		102.2	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		98.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	14.7	16.8	14.7	16.3	15.6
SAS	16.7	17.5	16.0	15.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	50	49	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.06	15	-10	25	16.2	14.8	1.42	16.7	15.8	0.89
Stacey Augmon	46	44	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-6	17	15.4	15.8	-0.39	15.2	17.3	-2.08
David Wesley	80	79	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	0	5	15.3	17.2	-1.84	15.8	19.7	-3.94
Jamaal Magloire	34	34	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.03	16	-11	27	14.4	16.2	-1.79	16.7	16.0	0.75
George Lynch	48	45	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	-2	9	15.2	16.0	-0.75	15.2	17.4	-2.22
P.J. Brown	57	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.39	-4	9	-13	16.1	14.7	1.36	16.9	15.1	1.78
Baron Davis	52	52	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.32	-10	15	-25	15.3	15.9	-0.63	16.6	15.8	0.83
Elden Campbell	55	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.36	-13	18	-31	16.7	13.7	3.00	16.2	16.4	-0.26
Lee Nailon	33	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	7	-9	14.6	16.1	-1.45	17.8	15.4	2.40

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	66	66	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.24	8	-13	21	16.3	16.1	0.19	15.2	16.4	-1.21
Steven Smith	67	68	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-9	13	16.7	15.0	1.64	15.6	15.4	0.17
Mark Bryant	6	7	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-2	-1	15.8	16.3	-0.46	15.6	15.6	0.01
Antonio Daniels	64	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-4	3	16.7	15.3	1.35	15.7	15.2	0.57
Malik Rose	40	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	1	-7	16.2	16.3	-0.17	16.0	15.2	0.75
Tim Duncan	84	84	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	16.2	17.2	-0.96	15.6	14.9	0.76
Cherokee Parks	50	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-2	-1	16.5	16.0	0.53	15.1	16.1	-0.97
Charles Smith	29	29	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	6	-17	15.7	16.6	-0.90	15.7	15.5	0.19
Terry Porter	44	48	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.30	-15	10	-25	15.4	17.1	-1.72	15.6	15.5	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.18,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.37,0.29,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 109, CHH 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.17,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.09,0	92.5%
PHX 104, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.28,0.47,0.04,0	92.0%
CLE 101, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.15,0.15,0	92.0%