NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	118		Excitement	9.9 [61]		MVP	Antoine Walker (DAL): +28.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	116		Comeback	10.8 [68]		LVP	Ray Allen (SEA): -18.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.29	0.01	0.28	0.01	14	57%	0.35	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.14	0.27	-0.12	0.00	22	88%	0.33	5	-0.19	5	60%	-0.21
Steve Nash	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.15,0.11	-0.03	0.15	0.00	16	50%	0.16	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.00	5	83%	0.13	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Shawn Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	22	39%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.11	0.01	11	87%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	0.01	8	80%	0.23	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.17	0.17	0.17	0.02	0.02	16	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.11
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	2	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.08
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	10	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.14	-0.02	20	48%	-0.05	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.5	29.6	15.0	26.2	1.7	38.0	134.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.7%

DAL +0.8%

DAL +15.9%

SEA -11.4%

DAL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.5	15.7	128.3	127.5	100.5
season	14.6	15.6		109.2	105.0
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.1	14.1	15.9	16.2	15.0
SEA	16.6	14.7	20.1	15.1	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	51	48	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.78	2	0	2	15.5	14.5	1.03	16.0	17.0	-1.04
Michael Finley	78	77	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.48	8	-6	14	15.4	13.2	2.14	16.5	16.1	0.45
Antoine Walker	77	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	0	2	14.9	15.9	-1.00	16.0	18.5	-2.49
Travis Best	24	22	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	-6	14	14.7	15.1	-0.44	19.5	15.5	4.08
Dirk Nowitzki	80	80	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.36	-1	3	-4	14.5	18.6	-4.08	16.3	17.3	-0.94
Steve Nash	72	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	3	-4	14.9	15.4	-0.47	16.2	17.6	-1.47
Shawn Bradley	20	20	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	0	2	17.4	14.4	3.09	18.6	15.8	2.82
Josh Howard	58	58	-0.55	1.05	-1.61	-0.26	-10	12	-22	14.6	15.8	-1.25	15.9	17.5	-1.58

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	53	52	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.32	-1	-1	0	16.7	16.1	0.55	15.6	14.3	1.21
Brent Barry	38	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-1	0	15.4	17.2	-1.86	13.9	15.9	-1.92
Antonio Daniels	58	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.42	11	-13	24	16.1	17.1	-0.96	14.7	15.6	-0.96
Reggie Evans	33	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-4	6	17.2	16.0	1.24	15.9	14.5	1.41
Ray Allen	77	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.40	7	-9	16	16.1	18.3	-2.17	14.7	16.8	-2.11
Luke Ridnour	5	6	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	4	-10	21.0	16.2	4.81	19.2	14.7	4.42
Calvin Booth	28	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.31	-2	0	-2	17.0	16.2	0.85	14.6	15.2	-0.62
Rashard Lewis	78	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	3	-8	16.8	14.2	2.59	14.8	16.2	-1.40
Ronald Murray	31	34	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.37	-8	6	-14	17.0	16.1	0.88	15.5	14.7	0.79
Vladimir Radmanovic	54	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.47	-7	5	-12	15.8	17.5	-1.70	15.4	14.5	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.77,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, WAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.46,0.76,0.58,0	89.5%
NYK 93, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.58,0	89.5%
MIN 119, OKC 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.56,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.69,0	88.8%