NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	6.8 [362]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +27.6%
San Antonio Spurs	101		Comeback	6.0 [294]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -24.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	81%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	56%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	19	54%	0.10	2	-0.08	12	92%	0.08
Thabo Sefolosha	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	0.00	0.10	17	56%	0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.12	-0.08	0.05	21	39%	-0.13	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.14	0.02	14	79%	0.33	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.05
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.00	9	67%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02	2	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	20%	-0.09
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	15	44%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.04	0.03	15	49%	0.05	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	9	39%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-0.02	6	0%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	28.3	18.7	27.1	2.8	48.0	154.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.7%

OKC -6.4%

SAS +14.0%

OKC -0.9%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	14.3	15.6	98.0	101.0	102.8
season	14.7	15.3		107.9	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.8	15.3	14.6	15.0	14.4
SAS	15.4	15.3	14.2	12.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	65	64	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.04	11	-14	25	14.0	15.3	-1.29	15.0	13.2	1.76
Serge Ibaka	43	44	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.04	9	-12	21	15.0	14.0	0.96	15.4	13.5	1.85
Nick Collison	37	36	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.09	-4	1	-5	13.9	14.7	-0.80	14.4	14.3	0.02
Daequan Cook	17	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	7	-17	14.4	14.5	-0.05	14.9	14.3	0.61
Kendrick Perkins	59	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	14.8	14.0	0.80	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Derek Fisher	49	49	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.39	-3	0	-3	14.0	14.8	-0.80	14.0	14.7	-0.65
Russell Westbrook	75	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.54	0	-3	3	14.8	13.4	1.35	14.4	14.2	0.17
Kevin Durant	89	90	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.41	-6	3	-9	14.4	14.8	-0.41	14.1	16.6	-2.50
James Harden	66	65	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	8	-19	14.5	14.3	0.19	13.6	15.8	-2.27

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Jackson	49	49	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.44	11	-8	19	13.9	14.8	-0.97	14.6	14.4	0.20
Tony Parker	78	78	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.50	8	-5	13	14.1	15.1	-0.95	14.8	13.2	1.63
Gary Neal	49	50	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-4	11	14.2	14.5	-0.29	14.5	14.4	0.10
Tim Duncan	70	71	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	-4	11	14.8	13.4	1.36	14.9	13.4	1.41
Manu Ginobili	71	70	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	-3	9	14.7	13.4	1.27	14.3	14.7	-0.40
Matt Bonner	24	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	2	-1	13.0	14.8	-1.83	12.9	15.0	-2.04
Tiago Splitter	27	26	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.03	2	1	1	14.7	14.2	0.54	14.3	14.5	-0.19
Danny Green	34	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	8	-13	13.6	14.7	-1.15	14.0	14.7	-0.73
Boris Diaw	44	43	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.00	-8	11	-19	15.6	13.3	2.30	15.2	13.9	1.33
Kawhi Leonard	54	54	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.15	-14	17	-31	14.1	14.7	-0.60	13.9	15.1	-1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.37,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.47,0.65,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 97, NJN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.16,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.76,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.5%
MIA 77, PHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.37,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.3%
MIL 92, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.22,0.13,0.27,0.36,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	92.2%