NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	89		Excitement	6.3 [518]		MVP	George Hill (SAS): +36.4%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	7.0 [227]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -18.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	11	54%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	10	59%	0.15	3	-0.10	9	100%	0.08
Shawn Marion	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	13	54%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	10	45%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	0.01	18	45%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.26	0.11	0.01	16	85%	0.36	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.18	0.18	-0.05	0.23	-0.01	16	41%	0.21	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.11
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	4	58%	0.08	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	9	56%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	9	45%	0.00	5	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	9	18%	-0.16	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.8	31.0	18.8	32.3	3.6	43.5	156.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.9%

DAL -6.9%

DAL -1.7%

SAS +20.9%

SAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	15.5	15.3	97.8	102.2	106.0
season	15.2	15.9		107.2	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.3	14.7	20.4	15.1	16.3
SAS	16.0	17.4	12.9	15.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	52	49	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.01	7	-10	17	17.5	14.7	2.78	15.9	15.0	0.85
Eduardo Najera	1	2	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-5	7	8.0	16.4	-8.42	25.0	15.3	9.73
Brendan Haywood	49	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.36	9	-12	21	14.8	18.1	-3.32	16.0	15.0	0.98
Jose Juan Barea	32	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	3	-9	15.8	16.6	-0.85	15.7	15.4	0.27
Jason Kidd	78	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-4	5	16.3	16.3	0.03	15.9	13.4	2.52
Erick Dampier	34	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	8	-19	18.2	15.2	2.95	15.3	15.6	-0.26
Jason Terry	61	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-5	7	15.1	18.8	-3.73	15.7	15.1	0.52
Dirk Nowitzki	82	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	1	-5	16.6	13.4	3.20	15.0	20.9	-5.91
Caron Butler	66	67	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.33	-15	12	-27	16.7	15.3	1.39	14.6	18.0	-3.31

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	84	85	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-6	15	15.4	16.2	-0.73	16.5	13.8	2.67
Tony Parker	48	51	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	-4	11	16.4	14.4	2.03	15.9	16.8	-0.88
Antonio McDyess	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	1	1	15.4	15.8	-0.39	16.5	15.9	0.56
Tim Duncan	70	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	1	1	15.5	15.4	0.11	16.2	16.7	-0.49
Richard Jefferson	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	-1	5	15.0	17.0	-2.01	16.6	15.3	1.36
DeJuan Blair	20	23	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	2	-1	15.4	15.5	-0.11	16.7	16.2	0.49
Manu Ginobili	65	63	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.44	-12	15	-27	14.9	17.0	-2.04	16.7	15.6	1.04
Keith Bogans	11	12	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	0	3	16.7	15.3	1.41	14.2	16.6	-2.40
Matt Bonner	15	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	4	-5	16.8	15.2	1.57	14.9	16.6	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.78,0.85,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.89,0.77,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.76,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.2%
CHA 121, PHX 136	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.83,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	91.8%
SAC 106, DEN 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.51,0.56,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.83,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	91.8%