NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	75		Excitement	8.3 [196]		MVP	Rafer Alston (ORL): +13.5%
Orlando Magic	83		Comeback	4.2 [534]		LVP	Ray Allen (BOS): -28.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	19	46%	0.04	5	-0.10	3	33%	-0.03
Glen Davis	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	11	65%	0.09	5	-0.19	1	100%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.05	-0.18	0.02	14	47%	-0.10	3	-0.15	8	62%	-0.16
Ray Allen	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.18	-0.13	-0.03	11	22%	-0.15	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.01	9	55%	0.23	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	8	61%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	18	45%	-0.01	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.06	0.04	16	52%	-0.02	2	-0.06	12	42%	-0.21
JJ Redick	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	12%	-0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	13	27%	-0.14	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.5	35.4	19.5	31.4	3.6	39.2	159.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +1.9%

ORL +10.4%

ORL +2.8%

ORL +37.0%

BOS -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.5	85.2	95.4	106.4
season	15.8	15.3		108.3	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		101.4	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.3	17.7	17.8	14.7	16.6
ORL	17.1	17.4	13.4	17.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	27	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-10	12	17.0	16.5	0.54	15.8	16.5	-0.69
Kendrick Perkins	69	67	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-10	12	16.3	17.7	-1.42	16.0	17.2	-1.19
Stephon Marbury	15	17	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-5	2	18.9	16.2	2.70	14.6	16.7	-2.11
Brian Scalabrine	58	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-3	-2	17.4	15.2	2.21	17.2	14.6	2.60
Rajon Rondo	73	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-2	-4	16.2	18.9	-2.70	16.5	15.2	1.27
Ray Allen	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.23	-8	0	-8	16.5	17.5	-0.98	16.9	12.8	4.14
Glen Davis	46	45	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	4	-16	16.8	16.5	0.28	15.5	17.1	-1.61
Paul Pierce	77	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	2	-12	16.3	19.2	-2.92	16.1	17.7	-1.70

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	48	47	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.34	17	-9	26	15.5	17.3	-1.76	14.9	18.7	-3.81
Rafer Alston	56	57	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-3	14	15.6	17.5	-1.86	16.0	17.8	-1.87
Dwight Howard	78	80	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-2	12	16.1	17.6	-1.41	16.6	16.6	0.00
Rashard Lewis	77	78	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.19	10	-2	12	16.2	17.3	-1.14	16.6	16.7	-0.08
Hedo Turkoglu	67	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	6	-4	16.9	14.3	2.58	16.9	15.8	1.07
JJ Redick	34	36	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.06	2	6	-4	16.6	16.1	0.59	17.9	15.7	2.19
Tony Battie	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	9	-10	19.5	16.0	3.45	17.3	16.6	0.76
Marcin Gortat	9	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	10	-12	17.6	16.1	1.41	16.6	16.6	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	19	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	10	-12	17.1	16.1	1.05	19.1	15.9	3.27
Courtney Lee	41	39	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.03	-7	15	-22	16.2	16.3	-0.08	16.7	16.5	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 110, OKC 118	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.76,0.91,1	92.1%
NYK 94, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.85,0.85,1	92.0%
MIN 79, NYK 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.81,1	91.7%