NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	8.0 [207]		MVP	Daequan Cook (OKC): +37.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	118		Comeback	6.7 [403]		LVP	Cole Aldrich (OKC): -11.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Thompson	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.19	0.05	0.02	11	79%	0.21	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Francisco Garcia	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	4	37%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	22	60%	0.23	3	-0.16	9	67%	-0.05
Travis Outlaw	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	15	56%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Isaiah Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.01	10	46%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Tyreke Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.02	13	64%	0.14	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Honeycutt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	4	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.38	0.38	0.17	0.22	0.01	11	73%	0.38	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.07	0.18	0.00	6	73%	0.30	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.06
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.11	-0.00	6	50%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.03	6	85%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	19	59%	0.11	3	-0.08	16	94%	0.10
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	13	41%	-0.04	2	-0.00	6	83%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.02	-0.10	0.04	2	75%	-0.04	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	28.4	16.0	29.2	2.5	37.2	141.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -0.3%

OKC +25.9%

OKC +18.3%

OKC +0.4%

OKC +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	OKC	NBA	SAC	OKC	NBA
this game	13.9	15.5	15.6	113.4	119.2	102.8
season	14.9	14.7		102.2	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.1		101.9	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.9	13.1	12.7	16.1	13.9
OKC	15.5	14.6	16.1	15.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmer Fredette	21	21	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-13	18	12.9	14.1	-1.23	13.1	16.2	-3.06
Donte Greene	17	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-4	0	13.4	14.0	-0.62	15.9	15.4	0.47
DeMarcus Cousins	71	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-10	12	14.0	13.6	0.34	15.4	15.9	-0.56
Charles Hayes	24	23	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	0	-8	14.1	13.8	0.29	16.5	15.2	1.27
Francisco Garcia	33	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-5	2	14.4	13.6	0.75	14.8	15.9	-1.04
Jason Thompson	82	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-3	-2	14.1	12.3	1.81	15.7	14.8	0.89
Travis Outlaw	69	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	0	-8	13.2	15.4	-2.15	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Tyreke Evans	74	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	1	-10	14.1	13.0	1.08	16.3	12.9	3.38
Isaiah Thomas	94	95	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.30	-8	0	-8	13.9	13.3	0.55	15.6	14.0	1.57

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	32	30	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.28	15	-7	22	14.9	15.8	-0.84	15.1	13.3	1.79
Derek Fisher	60	58	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-5	18	14.6	16.8	-2.21	14.4	13.0	1.41
Nick Collison	58	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-2	12	14.6	16.9	-2.30	14.5	12.9	1.62
Royal Ivey	32	31	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	2	4	15.6	15.4	0.18	15.2	13.3	1.90
Daequan Cook	46	44	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.38	3	5	-2	14.5	16.4	-1.92	13.9	13.8	0.12
Russell Westbrook	54	54	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.11	5	3	2	16.3	14.6	1.66	13.7	14.1	-0.37
Kevin Durant	66	65	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	6	-4	15.5	15.4	0.12	13.3	14.9	-1.60
Kendrick Perkins	46	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	9	-10	16.9	14.3	2.67	13.1	14.5	-1.45
Serge Ibaka	41	39	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.07	-2	10	-12	16.9	14.6	2.30	12.9	14.5	-1.62
Nazr Mohammed	21	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	14	-20	13.2	16.1	-2.88	13.8	13.9	-0.12
Thabo Sefolosha	39	39	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	13	-18	16.8	14.6	2.21	13.0	14.4	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.76,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 79, NYK 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.81,1	93.0%
POR 111, PHX 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.67,0.83,1	92.1%
BOS 75, ORL 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.99,1	92.1%