NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	8.9 [157]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +20.0%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	3.3 [199]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -41.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.2	0.10	0.12	0.02	18	63%	0.33	5	-0.13	21	76%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	73%	0.07	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.05	-0.00	0.07	0.02	13	57%	0.16	3	-0.11	4	25%	-0.04
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	5	50%	0.12	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	17	38%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	11	35%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Jason Williams	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	7	21%	-0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	6	71%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.05	0.10	-0.01	13	46%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	29%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	22	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.08
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0	0.00	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	16	39%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	55%	0.03	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.28,-0.42	-0.42	-0.14	-0.27	0.00	25	32%	-0.34	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.6	36.2	19.8	34.1	3.4	41.6	165.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.1%

DAL -7.3%

MIA +25.7%

DAL -12.7%

DAL -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	13.6	15.6	94.1	93.9	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		106.1	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	13.1	15.7	16.0	15.3
DAL	13.0	13.6	12.5	15.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	83	80	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.43	12	-9	21	15.6	14.3	1.22	14.3	10.4	3.84
Jason Williams	63	62	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-6	15	14.7	16.3	-1.57	14.1	12.6	1.49
Dwyane Wade	96	93	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.38	9	-6	15	15.0	21.0	-5.96	13.9	8.0	5.88
Shaquille O'Neal	63	64	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.55	-7	10	-17	16.1	14.1	2.02	13.1	14.4	-1.32
James Posey	54	51	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	3	-3	14.9	15.9	-0.96	13.8	13.3	0.50
Alonzo Mourning	29	26	0.15	0.34	-0.19	-0.17	11	-8	19	14.6	15.6	-1.00	15.7	12.8	2.93
Antoine Walker	71	71	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	7	-11	15.6	14.7	0.86	12.5	16.5	-4.00
Shandon Anderson	5	6	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	12	-21	21.0	15.0	5.96	6.8	14.0	-7.19
Gary Payton	41	37	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.00	-6	9	-15	15.3	15.4	-0.07	12.5	14.2	-1.67

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	34	35	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.17	7	-10	17	12.4	14.2	-1.84	16.9	14.5	2.46
Marquis Daniels	35	37	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-6	9	13.1	13.8	-0.68	16.4	14.7	1.60
DJ Mbenga	3	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	0	-3	18.7	13.4	5.25	2.3	15.7	-13.40
Josh Howard	60	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-13	23	13.3	14.0	-0.73	16.4	13.7	2.64
Adrian Griffin	9	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-2	1	14.3	13.5	0.83	16.4	15.2	1.22
Devin Harris	56	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	0	-3	13.9	13.1	0.77	14.4	16.6	-2.20
Erick Dampier	50	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	5	-13	13.7	13.5	0.16	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Dirk Nowitzki	96	98	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	13.6	14.0	-0.43	15.5	10.0	5.50
Jason Terry	88	92	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	0	-3	13.5	14.3	-0.80	15.3	16.1	-0.85
Jerry Stackhouse	59	61	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	11	-25	14.2	12.6	1.56	14.4	16.7	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.77,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.47,0.46,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.09,0.18,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 81, MIL 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.08,0	94.0%
HOU 108, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.01,0	91.7%
DET 110, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.04,0.09,0.29,0	91.6%