NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	110		Excitement	7.4 [320]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +25.1%
Indiana Pacers	104		Comeback	2.8 [698]		LVP	Danny Granger (IND): -24.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.15	-0.01	18	60%	0.29	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Jarvis Hayes	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	6	93%	0.24	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	13	53%	0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.06	0.02	8	68%	0.14	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.04
Amir Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Arron Afflalo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Maxiell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	18	39%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.21	0.04	0.02	15	76%	0.23	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Travis Diener	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.11	0.01	10	75%	0.28	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.07	-0.00	10	67%	0.20	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	55%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Danny Granger	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24	-0.24	-0.06	-0.18	-0.00	15	44%	-0.15	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	32.5	15.8	24.3	2.4	34.5	133.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.0%

IND -6.9%

DET +12.5%

DET +8.5%

DET +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	17.9	13.6	15.4	120.9	113.0	105.7
season	16.8	13.8		108.8	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.8		105.6	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.4	16.5	20.1	16.1	17.9
IND	15.8	11.2	14.2	13.9	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	63	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	1	4	18.0	17.4	0.62	14.1	12.6	1.43
Antonio McDyess	61	58	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	4	-2	18.4	16.8	1.58	13.5	13.9	-0.38
Rasheed Wallace	60	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.35	-1	7	-8	18.3	17.1	1.20	14.1	12.7	1.45
Tayshaun Prince	60	60	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.25	2	4	-2	18.6	16.4	2.18	13.9	13.1	0.84
Richard Hamilton	73	72	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.36	-2	8	-10	18.2	16.4	1.76	13.7	13.6	0.05
Arron Afflalo	19	21	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	-2	10	16.1	18.3	-2.28	13.3	13.7	-0.40
Jarvis Hayes	32	33	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	0	6	16.5	18.6	-2.09	12.7	14.2	-1.47
Amir Johnson	27	30	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	-2	10	15.7	18.7	-3.01	12.7	14.1	-1.40
Jason Maxiell	32	33	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	5	-4	18.1	17.7	0.41	14.4	13.2	1.22
Rodney Stuckey	28	27	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	5	-4	17.4	18.0	-0.62	12.6	14.1	-1.43

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Murphy	54	54	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.27	10	-16	26	14.3	12.7	1.63	18.3	17.2	1.13
Andre Owens	17	17	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.07	-2	-4	2	13.6	13.7	-0.07	18.4	17.7	0.68
Stephen Graham	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.06	-2	-4	2	0.0	13.8	-13.79	19.0	17.8	1.16
David Harrison	9	7	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	0	-6	13.6	13.7	-0.10	14.4	18.1	-3.71
Marquis Daniels	15	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-3	0	15.1	13.4	1.70	16.8	18.0	-1.27
Mike Dunleavy	75	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.45	8	-14	22	13.9	12.7	1.15	18.5	14.6	3.90
Jeff Foster	67	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.45	6	-12	18	14.1	12.4	1.65	18.3	16.6	1.67
Shawne Williams	17	15	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.15	-15	9	-24	11.9	14.0	-2.16	15.8	18.3	-2.46
Kareem Rush	59	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	5	-16	13.3	14.3	-1.08	17.1	19.0	-1.86
Travis Diener	70	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	13.6	13.9	-0.29	18.1	17.0	1.18
Danny Granger	76	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	5	-16	13.2	15.6	-2.33	17.6	19.4	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.04,0.09,0.29,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.43,0.27,0	92.5%
SAC 107, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.02,0,0	92.2%
CLE 95, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.32,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.2,0.34,0.38,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.29,0.14,0.27,0	92.1%