NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	4.5 [889]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): +16.1%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.8 [1098]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): -11.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mookie Blaylock	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	10	71%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	10	62%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Caffey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Vonteego Cummings	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	11	46%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sam Jacobson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Farmer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	12	57%	0.04	4	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
John Starks	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	16	39%	-0.06	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.04	14	52%	-0.06	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.02	-0.01	18	65%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	13	65%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	100%	0.06	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	9	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	28.9	15.0	27.0	1.8	30.2	131.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.6%

GSW -7.4%

MIA +19.5%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.2	106.4	121.1	101.7
season	14.7	15.7		97.2	101.2
opponent	15.9	14.7		98.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.0	16.0	17.6	14.3	15.7
MIA	14.4	14.0	15.9	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Jacobson	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	9.5	15.8	-6.33	14.0	14.8	-0.81
Tony Farmer	11	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-15	15	11.7	16.2	-4.49	17.7	14.4	3.39
Jason Caffey	39	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-11	7	16.4	15.2	1.27	13.7	15.5	-1.80
Erick Dampier	57	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-12	9	15.4	16.1	-0.64	15.2	14.1	1.18
John Starks	75	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.15	-1	-14	13	14.9	18.8	-3.95	15.4	12.5	2.83
Adonal Foyle	34	32	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-4	-7	16.7	15.1	1.64	14.4	15.0	-0.58
Vonteego Cummings	52	52	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	0.05	-15	0	-15	16.1	15.2	0.95	13.5	16.4	-2.93
Donyell Marshall	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-5	-5	15.5	16.4	-0.93	14.0	17.0	-2.96
Antawn Jamison	61	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	-3	-9	16.2	14.8	1.35	15.1	14.3	0.82
Mookie Blaylock	68	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.09	-19	4	-23	16.1	14.5	1.65	15.6	12.6	2.97

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	48	48	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.03	16	-1	17	16.4	13.1	3.33	16.5	14.9	1.57
Anthony Carter	52	50	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	0	15	14.1	15.6	-1.53	16.1	15.2	0.96
Rodney Buford	52	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	0	15	13.3	16.6	-3.23	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Clar. Weatherspoon	46	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	2	11	13.9	15.6	-1.74	15.6	15.7	-0.09
Jamal Mashburn	75	75	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.16	17	-2	19	14.5	15.7	-1.15	16.0	14.5	1.53
Mark Strickland	20	19	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.22	-2	17	-19	15.7	14.5	1.15	14.5	16.0	-1.53
P.J. Brown	49	49	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	13	-11	15.6	13.9	1.74	15.7	15.6	0.09
Voshon Lenard	43	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	15	-15	16.6	13.3	3.23	15.7	15.7	0.04
Tim Hardaway	43	44	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	15	-15	15.6	14.1	1.53	15.2	16.1	-0.96
Otis Thorpe	47	46	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	16	-17	13.1	16.4	-3.33	14.9	16.5	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 82, WAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
ORL 97, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.96,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
SAC 88, NOP 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.57,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%