NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	78		Excitement	7.1 [220]		MVP	Chris Mills (GSW): +11.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Comeback	6.2 [244]		LVP	Anthony Peeler (MIN): -20.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.01	-0.02	16	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Terry Cummings	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
John Starks	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	18	39%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	6	56%	-0.03	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Bimbo Coles	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.11	-0.02	8	39%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	73%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	18	50%	-0.07	1	-0.02	18	61%	-0.07
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	16	50%	0.02	5	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	12	39%	-0.11	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	31.2	15.6	23.5	2.3	36.7	135.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -21.3%

MIN +12.2%

MIN +39.4%

MIN +17.5%

MIN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIN	NBA	GSW	MIN	NBA
this game	16.1	14.3	15.8	80.4	96.7	99.6
season	15.9	15.0		95.1	98.6
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.6	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.3	18.5	15.1	15.9	16.1
MIN	14.7	15.0	14.9	12.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	39	35	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-11	11	15.9	16.3	-0.36	14.4	14.2	0.18
Antawn Jamison	36	34	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-11	11	17.1	15.5	1.59	15.6	13.6	1.97
Adonal Foyle	3	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-10	9	15.0	16.1	-1.15	14.7	14.3	0.45
Erick Dampier	56	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-9	7	16.7	15.3	1.46	14.1	14.6	-0.52
Jason Caffey	62	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-6	1	16.8	14.9	1.83	14.3	14.4	-0.12
Donyell Marshall	43	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	15.6	16.6	-1.00	14.6	14.1	0.44
Terry Cummings	37	38	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	0	-11	15.1	16.8	-1.71	14.3	14.3	0.00
John Starks	74	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	15.4	18.6	-3.21	13.6	16.6	-2.92
Chris Mills	79	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	16.1	16.3	-0.27	14.5	13.6	0.89
Bimbo Coles	57	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	0	-11	16.3	15.9	0.36	14.2	14.6	-0.39

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Peeler	62	67	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.20	16	-5	21	13.7	15.6	-1.86	16.0	16.3	-0.27
Kevin Garnett	80	84	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.24	14	-3	17	13.8	17.6	-3.76	16.1	16.2	-0.05
Malik Sealy	50	51	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-2	15	14.4	14.2	0.14	15.6	16.6	-0.98
Stephon Marbury	72	77	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	2	7	14.3	14.4	-0.17	15.5	18.4	-2.88
Joe Smith	76	81	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-2	15	14.2	14.6	-0.37	16.2	15.7	0.51
Bobby Jackson	20	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.11	2	9	-7	14.4	14.3	0.17	18.4	15.5	2.88
Dean Garrett	37	39	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	14	-17	14.5	14.2	0.24	16.5	15.9	0.58
Tom Hammonds	25	26	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	15	-19	14.7	14.2	0.50	16.9	15.8	1.05
Sam Mitchell	38	40	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.06	-5	16	-21	16.0	13.1	2.87	15.8	16.3	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.88,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.72,0.97,0.92,1	92.9%
SAC 98, ATL 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.29,0.37,0.47,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.85,1	92.4%
PHI 97, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.96,1,1	92.3%