NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	97		Excitement	7.8 [284]		MVP	Nerlens Noel (PHI): +19.7%
Detroit Pistons	110		Comeback	3.6 [696]		LVP	Ish Smith (PHI): -41.6%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nerlens Noel	0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.08	0.01	11	77%	0.21	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Jerami Grant	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.01	13	64%	0.24	2	-0.08	7	57%	0.01
Hollis Thompson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.04	-0.02	9	67%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
TJ McConnell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.12	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	8	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.03	8	41%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Robert Covington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Nik Stauskas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	-0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.24,-0.36,-0.4,-0.42,-0.42	-0.18	-0.24	0.01	18	36%	-0.12	6	-0.29	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.08	0.05	18	66%	0.20	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.07
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.01	6	75%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	16	57%	0.18	2	-0.05	12	58%	-0.03
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.07	0.02	16	53%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	11	48%	0.06	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	11	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	21%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	10%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.6	32.8	14.8	29.3	2.4	36.5	142.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI -36.5%

DET +15.1%

DET +42.7%

DET +25.8%

DET +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	DET	NBA	PHI	DET	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	14.9	102.1	118.3	105.1
season	14.8	15.0		97.7	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.2		105.0	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	17.5	15.8	13.8	14.5	15.3
DET	17.6	13.0	16.2	14.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
TJ McConnell	31	31	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-16	19	16.7	14.6	2.07	14.9	15.5	-0.58
Richaun Holmes	31	31	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-16	19	16.7	14.6	2.07	14.9	15.5	-0.58
Jerami Grant	58	57	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.10	-3	-10	7	15.5	15.1	0.43	15.2	15.5	-0.33
Isaiah Canaan	45	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-9	5	15.2	15.4	-0.26	16.1	14.6	1.48
Hollis Thompson	67	65	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	15.6	14.7	0.90	14.8	16.5	-1.68
Nik Stauskas	52	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-3	-7	15.2	15.5	-0.32	14.6	16.3	-1.69
Nerlens Noel	57	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-3	-7	14.9	15.9	-1.01	16.1	14.3	1.79
Ish Smith	64	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.09	-16	3	-19	14.6	16.7	-2.07	15.5	14.9	0.58
Robert Covington	70	70	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.23	-18	5	-23	14.8	16.7	-1.85	15.6	14.6	0.95

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	62	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.10	16	-3	19	14.4	17.2	-2.81	15.1	15.8	-0.78
Marcus Morris	71	72	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.14	12	1	11	15.7	14.2	1.43	15.7	14.2	1.51
Reggie Jackson	61	62	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.15	9	4	5	15.9	14.3	1.54	14.2	17.3	-3.09
Aron Baynes	23	23	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.02	10	3	7	14.0	15.8	-1.81	17.9	14.5	3.43
Anthony Tolliver	39	39	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	4	5	13.9	16.3	-2.37	15.9	14.9	0.99
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	73	75	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	6	1	15.8	13.7	2.00	14.5	18.2	-3.72
Andre Drummond	68	70	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.13	2	11	-9	15.9	13.9	1.97	14.7	17.2	-2.50
Brandon Jennings	32	33	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	9	-5	14.3	15.9	-1.54	17.3	14.2	3.09
Ersan Ilyasova	36	37	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	17	-21	16.7	14.4	2.33	15.6	15.1	0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	92.5%
GSW 78, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.88,0.98,1,1	92.3%
UTA 92, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.66,0.78,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	92.3%