NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	92		Excitement	8.2 [219]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +16.9%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	2.9 [512]		LVP	Bobby Phills (CHH): -24.7%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	11	65%	0.11	2	-0.08	9	89%	0.08
David Wesley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	72%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.06,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	16	58%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Baron Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Elden Campbell	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	9	29%	-0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	6	25%	-0.11	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Bobby Phills	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.02	13	19%	-0.17	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.18	0.02	0.03	20	73%	0.22	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.02	12	50%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.04	-0.02	20	47%	0.06	2	-0.08	11	91%	0.06
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	7	53%	-0.05	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	54%	0.03	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.0	27.1	14.8	28.2	2.3	32.3	132.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.6%

CHH -3.3%

DEN +24.4%

DEN +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	DEN	NBA	CHH	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	15.2	94.8	97.0	101.7
season	14.9	14.8		101.5	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		103.7	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	12.7	15.5	14.0	14.6	14.2
DEN	14.4	13.9	14.8	17.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	55	58	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-5	5	14.3	14.0	0.23	13.7	16.9	-3.20
Eddie Robinson	37	37	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-4	3	13.6	14.5	-0.91	16.5	14.3	2.21
Elden Campbell	53	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-12	19	14.1	14.2	-0.09	16.4	13.5	2.87
Ricky Davis	52	55	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-6	7	14.1	14.2	-0.17	14.2	16.1	-1.93
Brad Miller	53	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-4	3	13.1	15.5	-2.38	16.2	13.8	2.38
Baron Davis	48	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-4	3	13.4	14.9	-1.42	16.2	14.0	2.22
Bobby Phills	65	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-4	3	13.5	15.4	-1.91	15.2	14.7	0.47
David Wesley	57	58	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.33	-9	4	-13	15.2	12.7	2.52	14.1	16.5	-2.42
Derrick Coleman	76	77	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.31	-12	7	-19	14.7	12.0	2.75	14.3	17.6	-3.30

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	83	81	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.33	18	-13	31	14.7	16.6	-1.90	14.8	10.8	4.00
Ron Mercer	82	81	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-4	13	15.5	13.2	2.32	14.2	13.8	0.41
Antonio McDyess	76	72	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.29	9	-4	13	14.0	18.3	-4.29	14.2	13.9	0.32
Raef LaFrentz	79	80	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	-2	9	15.4	13.7	1.72	14.4	13.0	1.40
Keon Clark	32	32	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.37	-1	6	-7	15.4	14.9	0.54	14.5	14.0	0.47
George McCloud	50	47	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.39	-4	9	-13	17.2	12.9	4.26	12.3	15.9	-3.68
James Posey	42	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	-5	15	12.2	17.2	-5.01	15.8	13.0	2.83
Bryant Stith	18	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	9	-13	13.2	15.5	-2.32	13.8	14.2	-0.41
Roy Rogers	16	15	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.01	-8	13	-21	17.9	14.5	3.34	12.5	14.5	-2.00
Ryan Bowen	22	22	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	16	-27	16.7	14.6	2.07	12.3	14.7	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.96,1	94.4%
ATL 90, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.96,1	92.6%
PHI 97, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.96,1,1	92.5%