NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	3.7 [1025]		MVP	Jim Jackson (GSW): +12.9%
Houston Rockets	94		Comeback	1.4 [157]		LVP	Matt Bullard (HOU): -11.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	-0.00	0.02	16	79%	0.19	3	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.01	-0.06	16	58%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Tony Delk	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	12	44%	0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Duane Ferrell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.04	5	64%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	6	67%	0.05	4	-0.06	9	67%	-0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	8	28%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	6	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	21	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	70%	0.00	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	6	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	8	62%	0.00
Brent Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	0.05	14	58%	-0.01	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	17	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	12	23%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	26.5	16.4	25.2	1.8	41.2	136.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +50.3%

GSW +3.7%

HOU -2.1%

HOU -3.9%

GSW +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	16.8	15.6	115.6	105.6	102.5
season	15.6	15.7		92.9	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.7	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.6	14.8	16.4	15.0	15.4
HOU	18.8	17.9	18.7	12.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	59	56	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.02	20	-10	30	13.9	18.3	-4.36	18.5	13.9	4.57
Erick Dampier	74	74	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-2	14	14.7	18.4	-3.69	16.7	17.2	-0.50
Donyell Marshall	79	77	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-3	16	15.0	18.5	-3.58	16.8	16.7	0.04
Muggsy Bogues	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	0	10	15.1	16.3	-1.22	17.7	13.6	4.11
Jim Jackson	79	78	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	10	-10	15.5	14.5	0.97	16.5	18.9	-2.42
Tony Delk	34	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	2	6	16.1	14.9	1.20	16.1	17.2	-1.11
Todd Fuller	7	6	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	8	-6	19.4	15.1	4.37	17.8	16.7	1.12
Duane Ferrell	8	8	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	11	-12	18.7	15.1	3.68	12.7	17.2	-4.44
Jason Caffey	31	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.22	-10	20	-30	18.0	14.0	3.97	14.4	18.2	-3.85
Felton Spencer	9	9	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	14	-18	17.7	15.1	2.52	16.8	16.8	-0.01

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Johnson	56	56	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.33	11	-21	32	14.8	20.2	-5.44	15.6	15.0	0.60
Brent Price	37	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-16	22	14.1	18.7	-4.63	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Emanual Davis	33	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-15	20	14.5	18.2	-3.71	14.6	15.9	-1.26
Othella Harrington	52	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-9	8	15.2	19.0	-3.79	15.3	15.6	-0.33
Kevin Willis	59	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	18.3	13.8	4.56	16.1	14.0	2.05
Mario Elie	56	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	5	-20	18.2	14.5	3.71	15.9	14.6	1.26
Matt Maloney	52	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	6	-22	18.7	14.1	4.63	15.5	15.2	0.28
Matt Bullard	33	34	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.12	-21	11	-32	20.2	14.8	5.44	15.0	15.6	-0.60
Hakeem Olajuwon	67	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.21	-13	3	-16	16.7	17.2	-0.53	14.9	17.0	-2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, TOR 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0	95.7%
ATL 112, LAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
DEN 102, POR 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%