NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	3.6 [1102]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +18.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	85		Comeback	1.2 [741]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (POR): -14.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.01	-0.10	21	63%	0.24	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.01	-0.04	15	62%	0.16	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Gary Harris	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	12	61%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	10	45%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	0.00	0.07	8	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	10	35%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	6	71%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.00	0.09	6	86%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	4	87%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Swanigan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Layman	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	0.03	15	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	18	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	9	17%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	10	42%	-0.03	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.5	27.2	14.5	24.9	1.6	24.4	119.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.1%

DEN +7.2%

DEN +7.6%

DEN +2.9%

POR -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	17.7	15.4	14.7	115.9	98.8	107.5
season	14.7	15.2		111.2	107.8
opponent	14.3	14.7		105.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	19.0	15.7	22.5	17.7
POR	16.7	16.1	13.7	15.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	71	69	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.10	27	-10	37	17.6	17.8	-0.19	14.9	17.4	-2.50
Nikola Jokic	66	65	0.68	-0.18	0.85	-0.17	29	-12	41	18.3	15.6	2.71	15.8	14.0	1.80
Jamal Murray	51	51	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	2	13	17.1	18.4	-1.31	15.3	15.6	-0.37
Wilson Chandler	75	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	3	11	18.5	12.8	5.66	15.4	15.4	0.05
Trey Lyles	57	55	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	11	-5	19.0	15.3	3.67	15.8	14.7	1.04
Mason Plumlee	49	49	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	17	-17	16.1	19.7	-3.59	14.7	16.4	-1.70
Torrey Craig	21	19	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	19	-21	13.9	18.9	-4.95	17.2	14.9	2.32
Malik Beasley	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	18	-19	10.0	17.9	-7.94	13.5	15.5	-1.95
Juan Hernangomez	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	18	-19	10.0	17.9	-7.94	13.5	15.5	-1.95
Will Barton	44	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	19	-21	18.9	16.5	2.39	15.4	15.4	0.07

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Collins	32	33	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.23	15	-32	47	14.7	15.8	-1.05	18.3	17.3	1.06
Ed Davis	39	42	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.22	11	-28	39	14.3	16.4	-2.11	16.1	19.1	-3.01
Pat Connaughton	38	38	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.19	10	-27	37	15.3	15.5	-0.12	18.8	16.8	1.92
Maurice Harkless	34	34	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-21	25	16.7	14.6	2.15	17.6	17.7	-0.04
Noah Vonleh	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	9.5	15.7	-6.20	36.7	17.0	19.67
Caleb Swanigan	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-18	19	10.8	15.7	-4.92	23.3	17.3	6.08
Jake Layman	18	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-12	7	14.4	15.7	-1.22	18.4	17.5	0.85
Shabazz Napier	65	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.08	-17	0	-17	15.6	14.9	0.66	17.7	17.5	0.22
Evan Turner	42	43	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.06	-20	3	-23	15.2	15.6	-0.38	16.3	19.0	-2.77
CJ McCollum	61	64	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.01	-20	3	-23	14.8	17.0	-2.19	17.2	19.0	-1.89
Jusuf Nurkic	43	43	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.21	-28	11	-39	17.0	13.8	3.19	17.9	17.5	0.42
Al-Farouq Aminu	48	49	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	0.29	-36	19	-55	16.7	13.8	2.85	17.3	18.1	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 104, HOU 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	95.6%
ATL 109, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
ATL 112, LAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%