NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	3.8 [1019]		MVP	Christian Laettner (ATL): +7.3%
San Antonio Spurs	89		Comeback	1.0 [1209]		LVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): -9.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	11	74%	0.11	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Henry James	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	0.00	0.07	8	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	17	60%	0.09	4	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	23	52%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Priest Lauderdale	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnie Boyce	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivano Newbill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.06	8	70%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	0.00	0.07	10	72%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	3	50%	0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.13	-0.00	0.12	18	63%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	12	46%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	10	40%	-0.01	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	7	31%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	13	39%	-0.01	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	26.5	16.5	22.2	2.0	31.2	123.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +30.0%

ATL +5.1%

ATL +5.6%

ATL +7.4%

ATL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	17.8	15.6	125.3	102.3	104.4
season	16.4	16.8		105.3	100.8
opponent	15.4	16.0		109.4	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.5	12.2	17.0	16.7	15.3
SAS	18.0	18.3	19.9	15.3	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	72	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.12	24	-4	28	15.3	15.1	0.24	18.0	17.1	0.91
Christian Laettner	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.08	19	1	18	16.2	12.9	3.29	18.6	16.0	2.52
Ivano Newbill	26	27	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	9	2	12.6	16.4	-3.78	18.7	17.4	1.25
Henry James	61	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	13	-6	15.0	15.8	-0.83	18.1	17.3	0.81
Jon Barry	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	8	4	14.3	16.3	-1.94	17.0	18.7	-1.69
Steven Smith	60	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	10	0	17.6	10.0	7.58	18.4	16.4	2.02
Alan Henderson	38	38	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	12	-4	12.5	17.4	-4.86	16.8	18.7	-1.91
Dikembe Mutombo	48	47	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.04	7	13	-6	17.9	12.1	5.78	18.4	17.2	1.14
Priest Lauderdale	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	11.0	16.0	-5.01	14.2	18.5	-4.33
Donnie Boyce	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	10.7	15.8	-5.13	14.1	18.2	-4.09

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	30	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-13	6	18.1	17.7	0.40	16.4	14.6	1.74
Jamie Feick	45	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-12	4	17.9	17.8	0.06	14.0	16.6	-2.60
Vinny Del Negro	50	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-7	-6	16.8	19.2	-2.44	15.0	15.6	-0.57
Carl Herrera	68	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-10	0	17.4	19.4	-2.02	15.7	13.5	2.22
Vernon Maxwell	59	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-9	-2	17.7	18.0	-0.29	16.0	13.7	2.29
Greg Anderson	61	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-7	-6	19.1	14.9	4.16	16.6	12.2	4.44
Avery Johnson	57	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	-7	-6	17.7	18.1	-0.40	14.6	16.4	-1.74
Dominique Wilkins	65	65	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.17	-25	5	-30	18.0	17.4	0.64	13.9	19.2	-5.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 103, LAC 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
MIA 117, HOU 109	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	96.5%
SAC 110, LAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%