NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	3.8 [1015]		MVP	Corliss Williamson (DET): +5.9%
Toronto Raptors	85		Comeback	1.2 [1022]		LVP	Jelani McCoy (TOR): -11.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	15	58%	0.08	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	12	62%	0.10	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.04	11	57%	-0.00	2	-0.02	13	77%	0.02
Jon Barry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	10	55%	-0.02	4	-0.07	11	100%	0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.03	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	65%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.06	16	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	-0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	11	28%	-0.09	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	0.06	17	56%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	9	22%	0.01	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	27.2	16.6	27.2	2.3	34.6	133.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +9.4%

DET +13.1%

DET +15.6%

DET +10.9%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	16.9	14.9	15.5	102.2	93.4	101.6
season	16.8	16.2		101.7	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		105.1	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.5	15.9	14.7	21.2	16.9
TOR	16.2	18.4	12.5	13.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	69	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.18	12	-5	17	16.2	19.4	-3.27	14.3	17.1	-2.87
Chauncey Billups	72	74	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.15	12	-5	17	16.0	20.5	-4.47	14.4	17.1	-2.64
Clifford Robinson	55	57	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.16	10	-3	13	15.9	18.6	-2.75	14.4	15.9	-1.50
Ben Wallace	82	82	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	3	1	16.8	18.0	-1.18	14.7	16.9	-2.19
Corliss Williamson	49	48	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	8	-9	18.8	14.6	4.20	16.0	13.7	2.21
Michael Curry	41	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	-1	9	14.6	18.8	-4.20	13.7	16.0	-2.21
Jon Barry	26	26	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	6	-5	18.5	16.3	2.16	17.4	13.9	3.52
Danny Manning	18	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	10	-13	18.6	16.5	2.04	15.2	14.9	0.33
Hubert Davis	18	17	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.14	-5	12	-17	20.5	16.0	4.47	17.1	14.4	2.64
Mehmet Okur	20	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	10	-13	19.4	16.2	3.25	16.1	14.6	1.59

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	43	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.34	11	-18	29	14.4	15.4	-0.98	19.4	14.9	4.50
Maceo Baston	23	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-6	5	11.5	16.1	-4.60	16.2	17.2	-1.03
Jelani McCoy	48	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.39	8	-15	23	14.9	14.9	0.05	18.0	15.7	2.22
Voshon Lenard	63	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.50	9	-16	25	14.8	15.2	-0.44	17.9	14.8	3.09
Morris Peterson	55	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	6	-19	15.3	14.2	1.10	15.4	19.4	-4.01
Jerome Williams	41	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	6	-19	16.5	13.6	2.87	16.3	17.4	-1.17
Alvin Williams	48	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	11	-29	15.4	14.4	0.98	14.9	19.4	-4.50
Vince Carter	65	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	5	-17	14.5	15.9	-1.42	17.1	16.6	0.50
Michael Bradley	69	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	-1	-5	15.3	13.8	1.44	17.1	16.5	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 97, ATL 77	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
UTA 120, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.23,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
ATL 100, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%