NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	97		Excitement	2.6 [750]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): +10.2%
Atlanta Hawks	77		Comeback	1.2 [219]		LVP	Grant Long (ATL): -16.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.03	19	70%	0.12	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	16	62%	0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	6	60%	0.04	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00
Chris Whitney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Randell Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02	2	0.01	2	0%	-0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	12	67%	0.05	6	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	11	56%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	67%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	-0.06	10	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	33%	0.03
Jeff Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	42%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	6	21%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ed Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	9	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	5	43%	-0.03	4	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.03	0.05	15	46%	-0.08	3	-0.09	7	57%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	27.5	16.0	23.3	2.3	26.4	121.9
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +47.1%

ATL -10.3%

WAS +3.7%

WAS +7.9%

WAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ATL	NBA	WAS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.3	16.2	15.8	102.1	81.9	99.6
season	15.5	16.7		98.8	97.2
opponent	16.3	15.9		94.9	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.4	14.0	13.8	17.1	14.3
ATL	17.6	18.1	16.2	12.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	65	65	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.11	22	-2	24	13.2	16.8	-3.60	17.6	13.0	4.60
Juwan Howard	78	77	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.28	28	-8	36	13.8	16.7	-2.92	16.5	14.9	1.59
Mitch Richmond	72	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.19	24	-4	28	13.7	16.1	-2.41	16.3	15.7	0.58
Rod Strickland	65	65	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.14	14	6	8	14.1	14.7	-0.63	16.7	15.0	1.76
Calbert Cheaney	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	13	-6	15.4	13.5	1.92	15.5	16.6	-1.10
Chris Whitney	30	29	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	14	-8	14.7	14.1	0.63	15.0	16.7	-1.76
Terry Davis	45	47	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.30	17	3	14	14.2	14.4	-0.12	17.3	15.0	2.28
Tracy Murray	33	33	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	22	-24	15.6	13.6	2.04	16.5	16.0	0.42
Randell Jackson	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	23	-26	17.5	14.1	3.41	6.6	16.7	-10.12
Jeff McInnis	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	23	-26	17.5	14.1	3.41	6.6	16.7	-10.12
Ben Wallace	36	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.27	-10	30	-40	15.2	13.7	1.48	14.2	17.3	-3.05

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Sheppard	36	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-22	24	13.0	18.2	-5.20	16.4	13.1	3.27
Ed Gray	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-20	20	15.9	16.2	-0.37	15.4	14.1	1.36
Mark West	42	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-17	14	14.5	17.5	-2.95	15.5	13.4	2.08
Anthony Johnson	47	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	-13	6	15.4	17.0	-1.55	15.7	12.9	2.79
Grant Long	87	89	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-8	-4	16.0	18.4	-2.43	14.6	10.0	4.60
Dikembe Mutombo	52	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.18	-17	-3	-14	17.5	14.5	2.95	13.4	15.5	-2.08
LaPhonso Ellis	60	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.16	-20	0	-20	16.8	15.1	1.76	13.7	15.4	-1.62
Mookie Blaylock	56	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.13	-19	-1	-18	17.3	14.5	2.78	13.2	16.0	-2.82
Tyrone Corbin	74	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.16	-24	4	-28	17.1	12.6	4.55	13.2	18.1	-4.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 120, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.23,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
DET 92, TOR 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0	96.4%
MIA 110, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%