NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	106		Excitement	5.6 [669]		MVP	Steven Smith (ATL): +7.7%
Golden State Warriors	86		Comeback	2.8 [623]		LVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): -19.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.16	0.03	0.11	14	83%	0.15	3	-0.08	14	79%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.03	12	73%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Chucky Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.02	0.02	5	82%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	12	53%	0.02	1	-0.04	10	60%	-0.05
Ed Gray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	12	38%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Christian Laettner	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	8	40%	-0.04	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	19	53%	0.14	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.02	16	59%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	13	53%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Duane Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	17	29%	-0.06	5	-0.13	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	25.5	16.3	26.1	1.8	28.0	123.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +20.9%

ATL +5.8%

ATL +8.7%

ATL +12.8%

ATL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	GSW	NBA	ATL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.6	117.8	95.6	102.5
season	16.1	15.6		105.3	92.9
opponent	15.0	16.0		102.8	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	18.8	17.6	12.9	15.7
GSW	15.8	15.5	15.9	17.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	79	78	0.74	-0.24	0.98	-0.17	31	-11	42	15.6	16.6	-1.05	17.0	11.9	5.04
Alan Henderson	54	54	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.06	22	-2	24	16.8	14.1	2.67	16.2	16.4	-0.17
Eldridge Recasner	66	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	2	16	16.3	14.2	2.05	16.5	15.8	0.68
Dikembe Mutombo	69	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.26	21	-1	22	16.6	12.7	3.97	17.3	13.3	3.99
Tyrone Corbin	52	52	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.06	12	8	4	15.8	15.5	0.32	16.0	16.7	-0.78
Chucky Brown	36	35	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	12	-4	16.1	15.4	0.71	17.0	15.8	1.16
Christian Laettner	42	42	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	17	-14	14.9	16.5	-1.60	16.5	16.1	0.35
Mookie Blaylock	24	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	18	-16	14.2	16.3	-2.05	15.8	16.5	-0.68
Chris Crawford	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	5.5	16.2	-10.69	12.7	16.5	-3.70
Anthony Miller	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	5.5	16.2	-10.69	12.7	16.5	-3.70
Greg Anderson	11	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	26	-32	11.6	16.3	-4.64	11.6	17.0	-5.43
Ed Gray	9	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	31	-42	18.9	15.4	3.53	12.1	16.9	-4.78

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Shaw	60	63	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-19	18	16.2	16.4	-0.12	15.1	17.0	-1.89
Duane Ferrell	1	2	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-16	12	14.0	16.3	-2.31	19.5	15.6	3.87
Joe Smith	67	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-20	20	16.8	14.7	2.14	16.4	13.7	2.69
Felton Spencer	17	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-14	8	12.6	17.2	-4.56	15.9	15.7	0.27
Adonal Foyle	29	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.17	-14	-6	-8	16.0	16.4	-0.38	16.4	15.4	1.09
Erick Dampier	77	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	-6	-8	16.8	13.4	3.39	15.5	17.3	-1.87
Bimbo Coles	68	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.22	-19	-1	-18	16.5	15.6	0.86	15.8	15.4	0.46
Tony Delk	51	47	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.12	-16	-4	-12	16.1	16.5	-0.44	16.1	15.2	0.92
Donyell Marshall	80	80	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	0.11	-26	6	-32	16.2	16.7	-0.46	15.1	20.7	-5.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.8%
MIA 117, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%
MIL 103, MIA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0	93.4%