NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	6.2 [615]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +33.1%
Chicago Bulls	103		Comeback	2.6 [586]		LVP	Kris Dunn (CHI): -19.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.33	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.22	0.13	0.02	15	81%	0.33	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	4	82%	0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.16	0.01	0.09	13	78%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
James Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	6	67%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	11	58%	0.10	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	3	62%	0.05	2	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Kelly Olynyk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	61%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.00	0.08	10	64%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	6	0%	-0.13	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.00	0.06	12	78%	0.15	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	65%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Zach LaVine	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	19	49%	0.10	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.03
Shaquille Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lauri Markkanen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	19	49%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Chandler Hutchison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.04	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Selden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Kris Dunn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.06	-0.02	14	21%	-0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	30.0	14.6	27.4	1.8	25.4	129.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +65.1%

CHI -15.8%

CHI -7.5%

MIA +6.2%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	14.6	14.3	118.2	103.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.6		106.3	104.2
opponent	14.3	14.3		112.4	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	12.9	15.3	15.2	14.3
CHI	12.2	14.8	14.7	17.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	53	54	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.08	16	-2	18	15.0	13.5	1.58	14.7	14.6	0.14
James Johnson	52	54	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-1	16	13.6	15.1	-1.53	15.0	14.2	0.78
Tyler Johnson	53	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	6	2	15.1	13.4	1.74	13.8	15.5	-1.68
Hassan Whiteside	52	52	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	3	8	14.3	14.3	0.09	14.7	14.6	0.03
Josh Richardson	62	65	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	2	10	14.0	14.8	-0.85	13.8	16.2	-2.44
Rodney McGruder	33	33	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	10	-6	13.8	14.6	-0.77	14.5	14.7	-0.19
Derrick Jones Jr.	36	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	14	-14	16.3	13.1	3.19	15.0	14.5	0.51
Justise Winslow	53	53	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	12	-10	14.0	14.7	-0.73	14.7	14.5	0.20
Dion Waiters	44	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	12	-10	13.7	14.8	-1.16	16.6	13.2	3.37
Bam Adebayo	46	47	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	13	-12	14.3	14.3	-0.04	14.9	14.5	0.40
Kelly Olynyk	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	15	-16	11.1	14.7	-3.61	11.8	15.0	-3.17

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille Harrison	37	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-19	24	12.4	15.9	-3.50	15.2	13.8	1.40
Robin Lopez	44	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-11	8	14.7	14.6	0.12	14.0	14.5	-0.45
Jabari Parker	38	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-14	14	13.8	15.1	-1.33	14.3	14.3	-0.02
Zach LaVine	70	71	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-8	2	15.4	12.8	2.58	14.3	14.4	-0.08
Chandler Hutchison	46	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-7	0	15.5	13.9	1.63	14.2	14.4	-0.13
Ryan Arcidiacono	40	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-8	2	14.7	14.6	0.14	14.9	14.0	0.92
Lauri Markkanen	69	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.02	-13	-1	-12	15.3	13.2	2.10	13.9	15.1	-1.16
Kris Dunn	66	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	3	-20	15.2	13.6	1.55	14.1	14.7	-0.66
Wayne Selden	41	38	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	-3	-8	13.4	15.5	-2.12	13.4	14.9	-1.47
Bobby Portis	49	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	-2	-10	14.3	15.0	-0.65	15.0	13.6	1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 114, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
CHI 102, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
HOU 124, DAL 114	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%