NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	114		Excitement	6.3 [578]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +26.9%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	2.5 [389]		LVP	Rodney McGruder (MIA): -12.9%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.14	0.16	0.03	27	57%	0.30	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Lance Thomas	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	6	92%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	8	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Justin Holiday	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willy Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Baker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	15	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Derrick Rose	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	8	33%	0.02	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	17	76%	0.25	5	-0.13	4	75%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.02	20	47%	0.02	0	0.00	9	33%	-0.12
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	43%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	11	54%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	11	23%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.7	30.7	14.5	27.3	1.8	25.4	123.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +36.4%

MIA -0.8%

NYK +22.3%

MIA -9.5%

NYK +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.7	14.8	117.5	107.3	107.7
season	15.0	15.4		106.6	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		105.9	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.0	14.2	15.8	16.6	15.1
MIA	14.8	13.5	16.2	14.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	70	70	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.04	25	-14	39	15.3	14.6	0.76	15.6	12.4	3.18
Courtney Lee	57	56	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-5	21	15.8	14.1	1.62	15.8	13.3	2.51
Kyle O'Quinn	55	55	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	6	-1	15.4	14.7	0.73	14.0	15.8	-1.82
Brandon Jennings	50	49	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	9	-7	15.6	14.6	0.94	13.6	16.0	-2.43
Lance Thomas	42	42	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	6	-1	16.0	14.4	1.67	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Joakim Noah	28	28	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	2	7	15.3	15.0	0.26	16.7	13.9	2.79
Kristaps Porzingis	62	61	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	4	3	14.7	15.8	-1.14	15.6	13.2	2.47
Derrick Rose	49	49	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.03	7	4	3	14.5	15.7	-1.28	15.8	13.7	2.07
Justin Holiday	40	40	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	16	-21	14.1	15.8	-1.62	13.3	15.8	-2.51
Ron Baker	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	13	-15	15.0	15.1	-0.11	8.0	14.8	-6.81
Willy Hernangomez	7	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	12	-13	14.6	15.1	-0.57	14.8	14.7	0.10
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	23	23	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.13	-13	24	-37	13.4	15.6	-2.24	11.2	15.9	-4.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	22	25	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.21	13	-24	37	12.6	15.4	-2.79	14.4	15.4	-1.00
Josh McRoberts	54	55	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-10	9	15.8	13.4	2.42	16.0	14.0	2.03
Wayne Ellington	68	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.22	5	-16	21	14.4	15.5	-1.02	14.6	16.3	-1.66
Derrick Williams	33	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-13	15	13.6	15.3	-1.77	13.9	15.7	-1.83
Udonis Haslem	9	8	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	1	-13	12.7	15.0	-2.29	14.1	15.2	-1.07
Rodney McGruder	69	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	1	-13	15.1	13.7	1.39	15.4	14.3	1.13
Tyler Johnson	74	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.9	17.6	-3.70	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Goran Dragic	77	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	4	-19	15.5	11.8	3.68	15.4	13.8	1.63
Hassan Whiteside	74	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	0.04	-24	13	-37	15.4	12.6	2.79	15.4	14.4	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.51,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
MIL 123, BOS 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
MIA 117, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%