NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	5.5 [688]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +15.0%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	2.5 [295]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -13.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15	0.09	0.09	0.03	14	74%	0.22	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Charlie Villanueva	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.01	-0.04	9	68%	0.11	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.03	9	67%	0.08	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	7	62%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	69%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Ruffin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jake Voskuhl	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	0.05	10	52%	-0.02	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Michael Redd	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	10	33%	-0.06	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.07	0.05	16	67%	0.19	4	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	-0.00	15	72%	0.17	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	9	61%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	55%	0.02	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.07
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.03	10	60%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	6	67%	0.04	4	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00
Luke Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	29.8	14.8	28.4	2.5	38.3	137.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.8%

MIL +9.6%

MIL +19.7%

MIL +0.4%

MIL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.8	15.4	108.4	104.3	105.7
season	15.8	16.0		103.4	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	17.7	13.3	16.0	15.6
MIA	16.2	14.4	14.9	13.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	90	88	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.33	12	-7	19	15.5	17.6	-2.07	14.8	15.8	-1.07
Charlie Bell	61	58	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	15.6	15.7	-0.05	14.6	15.2	-0.55
Andrew Bogut	81	79	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	1	3	15.2	18.4	-3.18	14.3	17.4	-3.06
Royal Ivey	36	34	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	6	-7	15.8	15.5	0.26	14.3	15.1	-0.89
Yi Jianlian	42	43	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	-2	9	14.8	16.3	-1.58	15.5	14.2	1.30
Charlie Villanueva	44	42	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.26	0	5	-5	15.7	15.6	0.16	13.1	16.2	-3.14
Michael Ruffin	18	18	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-1	7	19.1	14.8	4.21	19.0	13.8	5.16
Michael Redd	64	66	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	6	-7	15.7	15.5	0.19	15.2	13.9	1.28
Bobby Simmons	34	36	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	5	-5	15.7	15.6	0.05	15.2	14.6	0.55
Jake Voskuhl	5	6	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	12	-19	17.6	15.5	2.07	15.8	14.8	1.07

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	30	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.32	7	-12	19	13.8	15.3	-1.46	16.6	15.2	1.44
Earl Barron	31	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-4	3	16.4	14.1	2.32	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Luke Jackson	26	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-3	1	16.1	14.3	1.78	13.8	16.3	-2.47
Mark Blount	60	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	0	-5	14.7	15.1	-0.40	16.6	14.1	2.42
Dwyane Wade	82	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.29	-1	-4	3	14.3	18.2	-3.92	15.7	15.5	0.21
Chris Quinn	74	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	14.8	14.9	-0.15	16.0	14.2	1.86
Udonis Haslem	81	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.23	-9	4	-13	15.0	13.5	1.50	15.5	16.7	-1.27
Ricky Davis	86	87	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.32	-11	6	-17	14.6	16.9	-2.24	15.4	18.6	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 110, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.7%
ATL 106, GSW 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%