NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	84		Excitement	5.5 [681]		MVP	Lawrence Funderburke (SAC): +0.6%
Sacramento Kings	99		Comeback	1.2 [1016]		LVP	Joe Smith (GSW): -14.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Felton Spencer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Muggsy Bogues	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Vaughn	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	8	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.04	4	-0.11	7	57%	-0.05
Bimbo Coles	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	11	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	14	33%	-0.05	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brian Shaw	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	0.03	11	41%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.06	0.03	20	50%	-0.06	3	-0.09	8	75%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	0.02	13	62%	0.07	4	-0.09	13	77%	-0.01
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	0.04	15	59%	0.01	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	12	38%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	14	39%	-0.06	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	25.6	15.4	27.5	2.5	35.8	133.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +9.9%

SAC +18.6%

GSW -2.3%

SAC +23.0%

SAC +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	14.8	13.5	15.6	81.6	98.0	102.5
season	15.6	15.2		92.9	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.0		104.3	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	16.3	13.3	14.9	14.8
SAC	15.1	15.7	12.9	10.8	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Vaughn	33	31	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.07	4	-19	23	14.3	15.0	-0.68	14.0	13.2	0.79
Felton Spencer	32	30	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-17	19	14.5	14.9	-0.39	13.5	13.5	0.02
Todd Fuller	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.17	-8	-7	-1	14.2	14.9	-0.71	9.5	14.2	-4.70
Muggsy Bogues	35	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-17	19	15.9	14.2	1.69	13.2	13.6	-0.33
Tony Delk	23	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	-5	-5	13.6	15.1	-1.55	11.0	14.1	-3.08
Bimbo Coles	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-4	-7	14.4	15.9	-1.50	13.9	12.2	1.70
Brian Shaw	73	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-4	-7	15.0	14.1	0.89	13.8	12.5	1.31
Erick Dampier	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	-6	-3	15.1	14.4	0.72	14.6	12.1	2.51
Donyell Marshall	92	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.02	-17	2	-19	14.6	16.2	-1.58	13.3	14.6	-1.33
Joe Smith	81	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.03	-17	2	-19	15.1	13.4	1.78	13.4	13.6	-0.24

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	59	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	2	11	11.8	15.8	-3.99	14.9	14.6	0.28
Lawrence Funderburke	58	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	3	9	11.8	15.7	-3.95	14.9	14.6	0.28
Billy Owens	67	66	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.11	8	7	1	15.0	10.4	4.63	15.1	14.2	0.90
Mitch Richmond	85	87	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	4	7	13.9	11.2	2.69	15.2	12.3	2.91
Anthony Johnson	58	59	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	9	-3	14.5	12.0	2.49	14.0	15.8	-1.84
Corliss Williamson	77	80	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	5	5	13.4	13.7	-0.39	14.4	16.0	-1.59
Michael Stewart	39	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	10	-5	13.3	13.5	-0.20	16.0	14.0	2.01
Olden Polynice	62	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.05	10	5	5	13.5	13.3	0.20	14.0	16.0	-2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 83, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	95.7%
CHA 91, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NOH 97, DEN 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%