NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	97		Excitement	4.7 [705]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +31.4%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	1.3 [991]		LVP	Xavier Henry (NOH): -10.7%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lance Thomas	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.03	6	69%	0.16	2	-0.03	14	86%	0.04
Gustavo Ayon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foote	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.05	3	80%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Greivis Vasquez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	2	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.04	14	57%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Henry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	14	37%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.26	0.03	-0.02	13	87%	0.31	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	16	53%	0.10	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.02	5	75%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	8	67%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	37%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	7	55%	0.01	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	33.2	15.7	28.1	1.8	30.0	134.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +56.2%

NOH -16.2%

DEN +0.3%

DEN +5.1%

DEN +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	15.7	15.6	109.0	125.0	102.8
season	16.3	14.5		99.2	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.7		104.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	20.0	15.4	15.3	17.1	16.9
DEN	13.4	14.6	16.0	18.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	35	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-11	9	17.4	16.5	0.86	13.4	17.1	-3.66
Al-Farouq Aminu	39	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-10	7	15.6	17.9	-2.24	17.8	13.9	3.88
Greivis Vasquez	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.05	-3	-10	7	15.4	18.1	-2.71	17.7	13.9	3.79
Jeff Foote	45	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-11	9	16.2	17.5	-1.28	15.7	15.6	0.11
Trevor Ariza	39	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-8	3	17.1	16.7	0.45	13.6	17.3	-3.71
Xavier Henry	43	43	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-7	1	17.5	16.3	1.18	17.3	14.0	3.30
Chris Kaman	39	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-6	-1	17.2	16.7	0.49	15.0	16.2	-1.16
Marco Belinelli	50	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	17.9	15.6	2.24	13.9	17.8	-3.88
Lance Thomas	54	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-2	-9	16.5	17.4	-0.86	17.1	13.4	3.66
Jarrett Jack	60	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	3	-19	17.6	15.4	2.12	14.8	17.5	-2.75

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	78	76	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.08	14	-1	15	15.6	15.8	-0.16	17.0	16.2	0.76
Chris Andersen	37	38	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	1	11	17.4	14.4	2.92	18.0	16.1	1.91
Arron Afflalo	68	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	5	3	14.9	18.1	-3.22	16.1	19.8	-3.64
Al Harrington	48	49	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	1	11	15.5	15.8	-0.30	17.6	16.0	1.55
Corey Brewer	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.11	14	-1	15	15.8	15.5	0.35	16.1	17.6	-1.51
Nene	39	41	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.15	12	1	11	13.4	17.5	-4.08	16.7	17.1	-0.40
Andre Miller	38	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	7	-1	17.4	14.3	3.05	17.7	16.2	1.50
Danilo Gallinari	43	43	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.24	-3	16	-19	15.3	16.0	-0.70	18.0	15.9	2.08
Kenneth Faried	39	38	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.21	-6	19	-25	15.8	15.5	0.29	15.7	17.8	-2.13
Jordan Hamilton	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	17	-21	18.4	15.4	3.01	13.2	17.1	-3.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 92, POR 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
ORL 76, DAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
GSW 84, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	95.1%