NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	92		Excitement	5.4 [739]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +17.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	1.2 [1217]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -11.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	20	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	15	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	12	92%	0.03
Nick Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	9	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	0.04	15	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	10	80%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.08	-0.03	15	62%	0.19	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Brandon Roy	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.04	-0.05	18	52%	0.13	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	10	73%	0.09	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	13	39%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	31.3	15.6	29.2	2.4	27.3	131.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +53.5%

OKC -12.0%

POR +11.1%

OKC -3.6%

POR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	POR	NBA	OKC	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	15.6	15.5	100.0	117.8	106.4
season	14.9	16.7		100.5	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.1		105.8	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.9	13.8	17.7	17.0	16.0
POR	14.0	15.7	13.6	19.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-17	20	8.2	16.4	-8.10	22.0	15.3	6.73
Nick Collison	33	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-10	6	17.2	15.3	1.84	15.2	15.9	-0.74
Chris Wilcox	32	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	-7	0	15.7	16.2	-0.53	16.2	15.3	0.89
Russell Westbrook	71	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-10	6	15.6	17.2	-1.54	15.8	15.2	0.60
Earl Watson	50	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-6	-2	16.4	15.6	0.79	16.9	14.2	2.66
Jeff Green	71	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	-2	-10	16.4	14.5	1.91	15.2	17.0	-1.83
Nenad Krstic	59	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	-4	-6	15.3	17.2	-1.84	15.9	15.2	0.74
Kyle Weaver	69	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.14	-10	-4	-6	15.9	16.4	-0.58	14.6	18.6	-3.98
Kevin Durant	71	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.04	-18	4	-22	16.4	14.7	1.73	15.3	16.5	-1.18

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	44	43	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	1	12	15.1	16.2	-1.13	16.4	15.6	0.83
Travis Outlaw	66	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	3	8	16.3	13.7	2.58	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Jerryd Bayless	49	48	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	3	8	16.4	14.7	1.68	17.0	14.9	2.18
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	2	10	15.9	15.0	0.84	15.7	16.9	-1.22
Rudy Fernandez	44	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	3	8	14.9	16.4	-1.48	16.5	15.5	1.00
Brandon Roy	71	72	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	8	-2	15.9	14.7	1.22	16.0	16.1	-0.13
Sergio Rodriguez	41	44	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	11	-8	14.7	16.4	-1.68	14.9	17.0	-2.18
Greg Oden	46	49	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	13	-12	16.2	15.1	1.13	15.6	16.4	-0.83
Nicolas Batum	24	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	12	-10	13.7	16.3	-2.58	16.6	15.8	0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 97, DEN 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
CLE 83, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
DET 74, NJN 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%