NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	5.4 [232]		MVP	Desmond Bane (ORL): +42.4%
Orlando Magic	117		Comeback	3.8 [133]		LVP	Simone Fontecchio (MIA): -7.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.15	0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.04	-0.09	17	49%	0.18	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.03	14	56%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Kel'el Ware	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.02	19	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0.04	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.05	14	68%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.26	0.13	-0.03	24	73%	0.46	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	8	87%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.04	-0.07	13	55%	0.17	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	4	78%	0.09	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	13	67%	0.13	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.10	0.01	-0.08	15	33%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	58%	0.04	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.3	0.1	32.2	11.3	35.1	0.0	28.2	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +64.2%

MIA -4.3%

MIA -1.0%

MIA -10.4%

ORL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	12.7	15.3	14.1	103.8	114.7	113.7
season	12.4	13.9		113.4	114.6
opponent	14.2	14.7		110.5	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	13.3	12.7	11.8	12.7
ORL	13.6	14.9	15.6	17.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	37	36	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-13	17	13.1	12.5	0.56	14.4	15.7	-1.30
Pelle Larsson	43	41	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-10	11	13.5	12.1	1.40	14.6	15.7	-1.08
Kel'el Ware	65	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-3	-3	13.0	12.2	0.74	14.9	15.9	-1.06
Tyler Herro	99	97	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	-2	-5	12.7	12.0	0.73	15.3	13.8	1.53
Davion Mitchell	92	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	12.4	15.2	-2.80	15.1	16.2	-1.03
Bam Adebayo	91	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-3	-3	12.4	14.9	-2.55	15.2	15.4	-0.12
Dru Smith	31	30	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.04	-14	5	-19	13.1	12.5	0.62	15.4	15.2	0.21
Andrew Wiggins	92	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	0	-9	12.4	15.2	-2.80	15.3	14.9	0.38
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	91	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	3	-15	13.0	10.5	2.46	14.9	18.1	-3.21
Norman Powell	104	102	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	0	-9	12.7	0.0	12.69	15.3	0.0	15.25

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paolo Banchero	102	104	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	0	9	15.3	0.0	15.25	12.7	0.0	12.69
Desmond Bane	92	94	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	0	9	15.4	13.7	1.72	12.8	11.4	1.43
Tristan da Silva	83	84	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	0	9	15.3	15.1	0.25	13.2	10.7	2.40
Wendell Carter Jr.	89	92	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	3	3	15.1	16.2	-1.03	12.4	15.2	-2.80
Jalen Suggs	97	99	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	2	5	15.1	19.2	-4.15	12.7	12.0	0.73
Anthony Black	87	90	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	2	5	15.5	13.9	1.63	12.4	14.5	-2.09
Goga Bitadze	73	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	7	-5	15.4	15.0	0.40	13.0	12.1	0.89
Jonathan Isaac	61	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	3	3	14.4	16.5	-2.02	12.6	12.8	-0.13
Tyus Jones	67	68	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.29	-3	12	-15	15.4	15.1	0.30	12.8	12.4	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 120, SAS 128	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.66,0.58,0.73,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.81,0.79,1,1,1	92.7%
BOS 103, CLE 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%
HOU 91, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%