NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	120		Excitement	7.2 [488]		MVP	Doug McDermott (SAS): +22.8%
San Antonio Spurs	128		Comeback	4.3 [53]		LVP	Jeremy Sochan (SAS): -9.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.02	0.03	24	69%	0.30	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	8	78%	0.19	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	8	72%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	21	52%	0.07	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Bruce Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.21	0.03	0.01	8	105%	0.27	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.11	0.00	5	92%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keita Bates-Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.13	0.01	6	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.01	7	74%	0.21	3	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Keldon Johnson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	-0.00	17	61%	0.14	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Devin Vassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	15	47%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Bassey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Malaki Branham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	0.05	16	58%	-0.00	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	27.7	13.8	30.2	1.8	29.3	130.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.4%

DEN -7.4%

SAS +28.0%

DEN -7.0%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	13.5	13.6	14.4	113.2	119.6	113.4
season	14.7	14.0		116.6	109.2
opponent	14.1	14.5		119.0	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.6	14.6	12.4	14.3	13.5
SAS	15.1	10.2	14.3	15.1	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	16	15	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.04	0	-8	8	14.7	13.2	1.51	12.5	13.7	-1.21
Aaron Gordon	73	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-8	8	13.2	14.1	-0.90	13.6	13.5	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	46	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-3	-2	13.5	13.4	0.13	12.9	14.2	-1.30
Thomas Bryant	16	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	-1	-6	15.9	13.0	2.90	14.1	13.5	0.58
Reggie Jackson	37	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	14.3	13.0	1.23	13.5	13.6	-0.11
Jeff Green	37	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	-1	-6	14.3	13.0	1.31	13.3	13.7	-0.42
Nikola Jokic	86	88	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	-6	4	12.9	16.0	-3.12	13.6	13.5	0.12
Bruce Brown	53	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-4	0	14.0	12.9	1.06	14.9	12.3	2.67
Jamal Murray	84	86	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-4	0	12.8	15.9	-3.08	13.4	14.1	-0.65
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	82	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-3	-2	13.1	14.6	-1.49	13.5	13.9	-0.44

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tre Jones	56	55	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.01	21	-13	34	13.0	14.2	-1.16	13.5	13.4	0.15
Doug McDermott	61	63	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-9	26	13.1	14.2	-1.06	14.6	11.9	2.67
Keldon Johnson	81	80	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	13.5	13.7	-0.11	12.8	15.4	-2.53
Keita Bates-Diop	28	27	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	0	8	13.6	13.6	0.05	15.0	13.0	2.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	25	24	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	15.1	13.1	1.97	14.3	13.2	1.06
Charles Bassey	34	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	0	8	13.4	13.6	-0.19	12.9	13.7	-0.82
Jeremy Sochan	74	73	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	12	-16	13.8	13.0	0.87	12.8	15.1	-2.31
Zach Collins	48	48	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.16	-3	11	-14	12.9	14.1	-1.26	13.5	13.5	-0.02
Devin Vassell	70	67	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.26	-7	15	-22	14.2	12.4	1.78	13.4	13.5	-0.07
Malaki Branham	58	59	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.30	-12	20	-32	13.5	13.6	-0.12	13.3	13.7	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.66,0.58,0.73,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.81,0.79,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 91, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%
NOP 95, GSW 110	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.7%
DET 115, IND 124	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.76,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.96,0.96,1,1,1	92.6%