NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	130		Excitement	1.5 [687]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +19.8%
Utah Jazz	117		Comeback	1.0 [1299]		LVP	Cody Williams (UTA): -10.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.20	0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.23	0.04	0.07	26	67%	0.21	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.04
Christian Braun	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.14	0.06	0.01	11	72%	0.19	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Cameron Johnson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.01	-0.03	13	68%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	65%	0.10	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	55%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DaRon Holmes II	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
KJ Simpson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Roddy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Joki?	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	10	56%	0.12	5	-0.12	7	71%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	33%	-0.05	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brice Sensabaugh	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.02	0.01	18	76%	0.27	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.01
Kyle Filipowski	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	-0.00	0.02	15	71%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Bez Mbeng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	63%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Oscar Tshiebwe	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kennedy Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	14	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Ace Bailey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	-0.05	17	33%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cody Williams	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	10	41%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	1.6	29.3	0.0	28.2	0.0	31.2	0.0
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +25.7%

DEN +9.7%

DEN +10.1%

DEN +3.4%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.0	12.8	14.2	121.5	108.3	113.4
season	14.6	13.9		119.3	111.5
opponent	13.6	14.1		119.6	114.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	13.0	12.0	17.4	14.0
UTA	13.5	12.7	12.4	12.6	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	93	92	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.02	20	-7	27	13.9	14.4	-0.53	13.3	9.6	3.77
Jamal Murray	103	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-5	23	13.9	16.7	-2.89	13.1	6.6	6.48
Nikola Joki?	103	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-5	23	13.9	16.7	-2.89	13.1	6.6	6.48
Bruce Brown	90	91	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.13	11	2	9	14.0	14.1	-0.10	13.2	10.8	2.39
Cameron Johnson	102	102	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-2	17	14.0	14.0	-0.03	13.2	5.5	7.71
Aaron Gordon	84	83	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.04	15	-2	17	14.3	12.7	1.63	13.3	11.1	2.16
Peyton Watson	36	37	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.13	17	-4	21	14.0	13.9	0.08	13.7	12.3	1.41
Tim Hardaway Jr.	33	33	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.16	17	-4	21	13.8	14.0	-0.18	13.9	12.3	1.59
Jonas Valan?i?nas	27	26	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	5	3	16.5	13.1	3.36	14.2	12.3	1.81
DaRon Holmes II	20	19	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	2	9	17.5	13.1	4.40	14.2	12.5	1.67
KJ Simpson	24	24	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	7	-1	17.4	13.0	4.44	12.6	12.8	-0.25
Jalen Pickett	20	19	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	2	9	17.5	13.1	4.40	14.2	12.5	1.67
David Roddy	24	24	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	7	-1	17.4	13.0	4.44	12.6	12.8	-0.25
Julian Strawther	49	49	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	9	-5	14.3	13.7	0.58	13.1	12.5	0.52

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brice Sensabaugh	91	92	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-9	5	12.9	12.2	0.64	14.6	9.9	4.77
Bez Mbeng	94	93	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-6	-1	12.9	12.2	0.65	14.3	11.6	2.76
Oscar Tshiebwe	61	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-1	-11	13.2	12.2	1.08	13.7	14.3	-0.69
Kyle Filipowski	95	95	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-9	5	13.0	11.0	2.02	13.7	16.0	-2.28
John Konchar	99	97	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.07	-13	0	-13	12.8	12.4	0.36	14.2	11.6	2.62
Ace Bailey	108	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	12.8	0.0	12.78	14.0	0.0	13.97
Kennedy Chandler	108	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	12.8	0.0	12.78	14.0	0.0	13.97
Cody Williams	83	83	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	1	-15	13.3	11.2	2.05	14.1	13.5	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.28,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.12,0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 109, SEA 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
SAS 106, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
MIN 100, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0	93.9%