NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	4.3 [938]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (POR): +27.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	90		Comeback	1.0 [855]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -9.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.29	0.05	0.10	19	90%	0.28	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.06	-0.03	16	67%	0.22	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.03
Tony Parker	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.05	-0.05	12	54%	0.12	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amal McCaskill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	-0.06	9	25%	-0.05	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.18	0.08	-0.01	17	73%	0.27	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	5	80%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Zach Randolph	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Erick Barkley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	-0.06	13	31%	-0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	21	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Scottie Pippen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	12	28%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.6	29.7	15.0	26.2	1.7	27.0	123.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.0%

SAS +2.5%

SAS +4.5%

POR -1.5%

SAS +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.6	116.5	100.0	102.3
season	15.8	16.0		104.3	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.2	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.6	14.8	16.2	19.8	15.7
POR	16.2	18.0	16.5	13.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	75	74	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.05	13	3	10	16.2	13.3	2.93	16.3	15.2	1.11
Tony Parker	49	48	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	1	14	16.8	14.5	2.36	15.2	17.1	-1.96
Steven Smith	71	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	4	8	14.7	19.5	-4.84	15.9	16.7	-0.81
David Robinson	75	73	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	7	2	14.5	21.6	-7.08	16.6	13.9	2.73
Malik Rose	22	23	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	9	-2	18.7	14.8	3.96	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Bruce Bowen	59	59	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	11	-6	15.3	16.6	-1.34	16.2	15.8	0.40
Danny Ferry	25	24	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	10	-4	15.7	15.7	-0.01	17.0	15.8	1.17
Terry Porter	26	26	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.11	9	7	2	19.5	14.2	5.34	15.5	16.4	-0.90
Antonio Daniels	42	42	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	15	-14	14.5	16.8	-2.36	17.1	15.2	1.96
Stephen Jackson	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	20.0	15.7	4.32	0.0	16.1	-16.10
Cherokee Parks	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	13	-10	21.0	15.6	5.39	13.5	16.2	-2.66
Amal McCaskill	8	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	16	-16	13.0	16.0	-2.99	12.7	16.4	-3.68

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	12	13	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-13	10	16.1	16.1	-0.02	14.1	16.0	-1.92
Erick Barkley	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-13	10	15.4	16.2	-0.84	21.8	14.9	6.93
Zach Randolph	4	4	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-10	4	16.5	16.1	0.42	21.0	15.5	5.52
Dale Davis	53	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	-9	2	16.8	15.1	1.73	15.4	16.2	-0.83
Steve Kerr	39	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	-9	2	15.2	16.8	-1.53	16.4	15.2	1.15
Rasheed Wallace	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-12	8	15.9	17.2	-1.32	15.7	15.7	0.07
Bonzi Wells	66	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	-7	-2	16.8	14.3	2.47	16.2	14.3	1.84
Shawn Kemp	35	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-4	-8	15.4	16.5	-1.10	16.2	15.4	0.82
Scottie Pippen	73	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	-3	-10	16.0	16.4	-0.31	14.8	19.7	-4.90
Damon Stoudamire	81	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	0	-16	16.1	15.8	0.36	15.0	22.0	-6.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 100, DAL 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	95.3%
NJN 101, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.07,0.04,0,0	94.4%
UTA 102, GSW 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%