NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	4.5 [875]		MVP	Derek Harper (ORL): +15.3%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	1.1 [726]		LVP	Khalid Reeves (DAL): -7.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Harper	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	11	73%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	0.08	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.02	10	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Brian Evans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	65%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	12	39%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Carl Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Lawson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.04	4	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	16	41%	-0.03	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	7	58%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.03
Gerald Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	9	22%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	6	53%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	65%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	0.03	12	62%	0.04	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.03
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	9	54%	0.01	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bubba Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.03	13	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khalid Reeves	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	5	43%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.7	24.3	16.3	25.5	2.8	29.4	122.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +43.7%

DAL -12.8%

ORL +18.5%

DAL -1.8%

ORL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	17.7	15.7	15.6	116.3	103.4	102.5
season	16.7	15.8		100.3	98.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		104.6	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.1	16.0	19.3	20.6	17.7
DAL	16.9	14.7	16.7	14.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rony Seikaly	48	50	0.64	-0.14	0.79	-0.03	23	-13	36	17.9	17.3	0.55	16.6	14.4	2.17
Darrell Armstrong	39	39	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	1	8	17.8	17.5	0.36	15.8	15.6	0.21
Bo Outlaw	65	63	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	3	4	17.5	18.1	-0.59	17.0	12.2	4.82
Derek Harper	52	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	9	-8	18.2	16.9	1.32	14.5	17.3	-2.86
Brian Evans	46	46	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.27	-1	11	-12	18.2	17.0	1.26	14.5	17.0	-2.45
Gerald Wilkins	36	38	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.04	9	1	8	17.2	18.0	-0.79	17.0	14.6	2.39
Horace Grant	64	67	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	10	-10	17.9	17.0	0.81	15.1	17.4	-2.27
Mark Price	48	51	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	6	-2	17.3	18.1	-0.72	15.2	16.3	-1.11
Dan Schayes	26	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	12	-14	16.7	18.1	-1.43	15.6	15.7	-0.14
Johnny Taylor	4	3	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	10	-10	18.5	17.6	0.89	12.0	15.8	-3.79
Carl Thomas	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	6.0	17.8	-11.79	0.0	15.7	-15.66
Jason Lawson	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	6.0	17.8	-11.79	0.0	15.7	-15.66

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bubba Wells	14	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-8	6	13.2	16.1	-2.91	16.1	18.0	-1.88
Martin Muursepp	36	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-6	2	14.1	16.8	-2.68	16.3	18.6	-2.27
Erick Strickland	37	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-7	4	14.9	16.2	-1.38	17.6	17.7	-0.13
Hubert Davis	52	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-8	6	14.1	18.0	-3.97	18.1	17.0	1.13
Dennis Scott	75	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	15.4	17.4	-2.04	17.3	19.8	-2.50
A.C. Green	47	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.22	-5	-5	0	18.0	12.9	5.15	19.1	16.0	3.11
Khalid Reeves	59	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	16.3	14.3	2.02	17.6	17.7	-0.13
Samaki Walker	39	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	3	-16	18.4	13.4	4.95	17.9	17.4	0.56
Michael Finley	76	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	15.2	18.5	-3.31	17.7	17.4	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 106, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.3%
NJN 101, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.07,0.04,0,0	95.0%
PHI 97, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.29,0.32,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0,0	94.9%