NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	7.3 [366]		MVP	Kobe Brown (IND): +23.6%
Indiana Pacers	135		Comeback	1.8 [176]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -7.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.20	-0.00	0.01	22	67%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	11	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Davion Mitchell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	17	49%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Myron Gardner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	10%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	16	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.09	0.01	11	78%	0.24	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Micah Potter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.02	0.02	9	105%	0.22	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	8	71%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.02	0.01	8	88%	0.18	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.01	4	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quenton Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jay Huff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	24	55%	0.11	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.00
Ethan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Slawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	0.06	12	60%	0.02	2	-0.07	1	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.5	30.1	14.3	25.0	1.3	26.2	125.9
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +61.6%

IND +4.1%

MIA -4.5%

MIA -12.6%

IND +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	13.8	13.7	14.2	113.5	128.6	113.7
season	12.9	13.8		114.3	109.3
opponent	14.2	14.5		117.6	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.6	12.2	15.7	14.2	13.8
IND	13.0	12.6	16.3	13.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	33	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-14	11	14.1	13.7	0.39	13.1	14.0	-0.83
Kel'el Ware	65	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-14	11	14.4	12.8	1.65	14.1	12.9	1.19
Myron Gardner	14	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-8	-1	13.5	13.9	-0.38	14.1	13.6	0.44
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	68	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-10	3	14.6	12.3	2.28	14.0	13.0	1.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	93	95	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-11	5	13.9	13.3	0.62	13.4	16.2	-2.77
Bam Adebayo	88	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.05	-17	0	-17	14.0	13.1	0.83	13.7	13.6	0.10
Andrew Wiggins	93	92	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.04	-18	1	-19	14.0	12.2	1.84	13.8	12.8	1.06
Davion Mitchell	99	99	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.03	-19	2	-21	14.1	9.2	4.86	13.6	15.3	-1.74
Tyler Herro	102	102	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.01	-19	2	-21	13.9	9.0	4.92	13.6	15.3	-1.69
Pelle Larsson	100	101	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.03	-21	4	-25	13.9	12.2	1.64	13.7	13.5	0.20

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Sheppard	82	80	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.01	20	-3	23	13.1	15.8	-2.67	13.2	16.0	-2.88
Andrew Nembhard	102	102	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.01	19	-2	21	13.6	15.3	-1.69	13.9	9.0	4.92
Kobe Brown	105	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.00	17	0	17	13.7	0.0	13.70	13.8	0.0	13.83
Jay Huff	48	49	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.04	13	4	9	14.8	12.8	2.02	14.9	12.9	2.03
Pascal Siakam	71	71	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	5	7	13.8	13.4	0.38	13.7	14.1	-0.34
Jalen Slawson	53	52	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	15	-13	14.4	12.9	1.49	14.1	13.5	0.58
T.J. McConnell	66	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	15	-13	14.0	13.2	0.82	14.6	12.6	1.94
Obi Toppin	40	42	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	13	-9	14.7	13.0	1.70	14.5	13.4	1.13
Quenton Jackson	57	57	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	16	-15	13.6	13.8	-0.18	14.1	13.5	0.62
Ethan Thompson	43	43	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	18	-19	12.9	14.3	-1.37	12.3	14.9	-2.68
Micah Potter	71	70	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	17	-17	13.5	14.0	-0.49	13.8	13.9	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.48,0.63,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.96,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 91, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.79,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.1%
NYK 89, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.95,1,0.97,1,1	92.7%
MEM 84, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1	92.6%