NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	89		Excitement	6.5 [411]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +16.2%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.9 [763]		LVP	Toney Douglas (NYK): -18.7%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Henry Walker	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.01	12	87%	0.26	6	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	3	64%	0.03	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.04
Steve Novak	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	42%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.05	12	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	14	40%	0.00	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Toney Douglas	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.11	0.03	18	44%	-0.06	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.05	0.02	19	64%	0.18	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	70%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	8	44%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.10	-0.02	0.08	18	67%	0.11	4	-0.11	10	90%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.04	-0.02	18	31%	-0.04	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.3	33.6	19.4	29.2	3.5	33.2	149.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +11.5%

MIA +14.4%

NYK -9.0%

MIA +32.6%

MIA +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	13.7	15.6	91.8	102.1	102.8
season	14.9	15.5		102.3	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		98.8	100.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.3	16.0	16.0	15.4	15.9
MIA	13.0	13.4	14.0	14.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Landry Fields	68	70	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-9	8	15.9	16.0	-0.07	13.5	14.3	-0.72
Henry Walker	60	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-13	16	16.0	15.9	0.05	14.7	12.0	2.73
Steve Novak	19	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-6	2	15.8	16.0	-0.13	15.9	13.3	2.59
Mike Bibby	27	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-1	-8	16.6	15.7	0.84	13.7	13.8	-0.08
Tyson Chandler	80	82	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-6	2	15.8	16.4	-0.56	13.6	14.5	-0.94
Amar'e Stoudemire	77	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-5	0	15.9	16.1	-0.19	13.4	15.0	-1.61
Toney Douglas	73	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-5	0	15.7	16.8	-1.12	13.5	14.5	-0.98
Iman Shumpert	44	41	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	4	-18	16.1	15.8	0.26	12.2	14.9	-2.72
Jared Jeffries	37	36	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	1	-12	16.2	15.8	0.48	14.8	13.1	1.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	50	52	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.12	23	-13	36	13.7	13.8	-0.09	15.8	16.1	-0.26
Norris Cole	60	58	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-1	12	14.3	12.8	1.46	15.8	16.2	-0.47
Mike Miller	41	42	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-3	16	13.9	13.6	0.32	15.5	16.3	-0.71
Shane Battier	28	32	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	-3	16	14.0	13.7	0.31	16.6	15.6	0.92
LeBron James	81	81	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	6	-2	13.6	14.7	-1.13	16.1	15.2	0.91
Dwyane Wade	69	66	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	11	-12	13.7	14.0	-0.31	15.6	16.6	-0.98
Chris Bosh	72	69	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	11	-12	13.6	14.2	-0.67	16.1	15.5	0.58
Mario Chalmers	37	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	11	-12	12.8	14.3	-1.46	16.2	15.8	0.47
Joel Anthony	47	46	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	21	-32	14.2	13.3	0.91	16.0	15.9	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.95,1,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 85, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.51,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.78,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,1,1	93.2%
CHI 93, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	93.2%
GSW 107, POR 129	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.91,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.2%