NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	6.7 [483]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +28.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	1.7 [906]		LVP	Othella Harrington (CHI): -14.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28	0.20	0.12	0.04	11	79%	0.28	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Michael Sweetney	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.00	6	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.05	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.01	14	52%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Chris Duhon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.07	0.03	17	56%	0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	19	57%	0.20	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.04
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	12	69%	0.22	3	-0.06	12	92%	0.07
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	10	55%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	3	70%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.07
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	13	30%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	33.2	16.7	26.2	2.6	42.2	145.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +2.2%

MIN +20.5%

MIN +8.3%

MIN +18.8%

MIN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIN	NBA	CHI	MIN	NBA
this game	14.0	16.8	15.6	98.9	106.5	104.4
season	14.4	16.1		102.6	101.0
opponent	15.9	16.1		103.1	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.2	12.9	17.0	13.2	14.0
MIN	15.6	18.4	16.4	16.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	55	52	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.14	5	-11	16	13.8	14.3	-0.49	17.1	16.5	0.59
Chris Duhon	43	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-8	10	13.4	14.5	-1.11	16.7	16.8	-0.08
Othella Harrington	18	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-5	4	13.6	14.1	-0.51	16.4	16.9	-0.50
Michael Sweetney	38	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-11	16	15.7	12.9	2.88	17.3	16.5	0.79
Jannero Pargo	8	6	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-3	0	12.9	14.1	-1.25	19.3	16.6	2.71
Tyson Chandler	34	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	6	-18	13.6	14.3	-0.68	15.5	17.6	-2.11
Ben Gordon	55	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	0	-6	15.1	12.6	2.49	16.4	17.3	-0.88
Luol Deng	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	0	-6	14.1	13.7	0.37	16.9	16.5	0.39
Kirk Hinrich	88	89	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-3	0	13.8	17.3	-3.54	17.0	11.2	5.79
Andres Nocioni	60	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	5	-16	13.3	15.2	-1.86	16.8	16.8	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	75	77	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-1	8	16.7	17.3	-0.67	14.0	14.2	-0.19
Kevin Garnett	77	79	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	1	4	16.8	16.8	-0.02	14.4	12.0	2.41
Wally Szczerbiak	80	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.14	9	-3	12	16.5	18.7	-2.20	14.2	12.9	1.29
Anthony Carter	31	31	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	3	0	16.7	16.9	-0.18	13.4	14.3	-0.99
Mark Madsen	29	32	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	0	6	16.1	17.1	-1.06	13.9	14.1	-0.17
Trenton Hassell	74	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	6	-6	17.5	14.2	3.25	14.0	14.1	-0.10
Troy Hudson	43	44	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	2	2	17.1	16.6	0.51	13.5	14.5	-1.02
Eddie Griffin	44	43	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	8	-10	16.9	16.7	0.13	14.4	13.7	0.78
Rashad McCants	12	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.01	-2	8	-10	16.4	16.9	-0.44	13.0	14.2	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	94.4%
MIA 76, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1	94.0%
CHA 96, IND 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.88,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.0%