NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	136		Excitement	6.8 [444]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +34.7%
San Antonio Spurs	131		Comeback	20.6 [43]		LVP	Keldon Johnson (SAS): -17.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.35	0.18	0.20	0.04	21	68%	0.42	4	-0.08	15	100%	0.09
Spencer Jones	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.09	0.02	13	73%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Johnson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.19	0.13	0.07	0.00	8	83%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Joki?	0.13	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.01	0.03	17	69%	0.19	3	-0.06	11	100%	0.05
Julian Strawther	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	6	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyus Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Castle	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.02	0.02	15	70%	0.20	2	-0.03	13	92%	0.06
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.07	0.02	10	74%	0.20	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Carter Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	6	77%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Devin Vassell	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	14	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.03	-0.02	19	61%	0.15	4	-0.11	6	50%	-0.02
Dylan Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	12	54%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	12	21%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.6	0.0	26.5	0.0	37.1	0.0	32.2	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.9%

DEN +13.2%

SAS -2.1%

DEN +3.7%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	13.1	13.2	14.2	124.8	119.1	113.7
season	14.6	13.8		119.8	117.9
opponent	14.5	14.1		109.4	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	13.5	11.8	14.4	13.1
SAS	11.7	13.1	12.2	16.2	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	100	99	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-11	27	13.1	13.1	-0.01	13.4	10.8	2.61
Cameron Johnson	97	98	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-9	23	13.0	13.7	-0.73	13.4	11.1	2.34
Spencer Jones	92	92	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.39	8	-3	11	13.2	12.3	0.96	13.5	11.2	2.32
Bruce Brown	87	86	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.46	3	2	1	13.2	12.8	0.41	13.3	12.8	0.48
Jamal Murray	109	109	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	0	5	13.1	0.0	13.10	13.3	2.0	11.27
Nikola Joki?	109	109	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	2	1	13.1	0.0	13.10	13.3	1.0	12.28
Jonas Valan?i?nas	13	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	13	-21	14.2	12.9	1.28	12.6	13.2	-0.65
Julian Strawther	53	52	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.14	-12	17	-29	13.2	13.0	0.28	13.6	12.8	0.82
Tyus Jones	29	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.13	-12	17	-29	13.0	13.1	-0.14	12.0	13.6	-1.56
Tim Hardaway Jr.	86	85	-0.42	0.92	-1.35	-0.07	-12	17	-29	12.7	14.4	-1.69	12.4	15.6	-3.15

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	17	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-5	5	15.2	12.8	2.38	13.8	13.0	0.86
Keldon Johnson	95	95	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	4	-13	13.8	9.3	4.44	12.7	15.7	-3.00
Dylan Harper	89	90	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	13.6	11.2	2.44	12.8	14.3	-1.47
Harrison Barnes	109	109	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-2	-1	13.3	1.0	12.28	13.1	0.0	13.10
De'Aaron Fox	110	109	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.2	0.0	13.16	13.1	0.0	13.10
Carter Bryant	82	82	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.45	-7	2	-9	13.3	12.7	0.60	13.0	13.5	-0.56
Stephon Castle	101	101	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.24	-16	11	-27	13.4	10.2	3.20	13.1	12.9	0.24
Devin Vassell	87	85	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.33	-15	10	-25	13.5	12.0	1.47	13.5	11.8	1.68
Julian Champagnie	78	76	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.42	-15	10	-25	13.6	12.1	1.51	13.6	11.9	1.75
Luke Kornet	82	82	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.32	-19	14	-33	14.0	10.8	3.14	13.4	12.2	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.82,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.61,0.25,0.03,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 116, DET 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.79,0.8,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.47,0.29,0.03,0,0	91.8%
DET 104, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.25,0.15,0.02,0,0	90.8%
SAS 106, CHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.84,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.86,0.76,0.47,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0	90.2%