NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	9.2 [97]		MVP	Brandon Ingram (TOR): +17.8%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	1.7 [180]		LVP	Collin Murray-Boyles (TOR): -23.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	6	85%	0.16	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
DaRon Holmes II	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	5	92%	0.15	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	19	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.06
Spencer Jones	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	3	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.08
Bruce Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	57%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.03	18	49%	0.08	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.05
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	13	35%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	11	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.05	0.03	21	65%	0.22	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.03
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.03	0.03	14	62%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	59%	0.10	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.03,-0.04,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	16	52%	0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Ochai Agbaji	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamison Battle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gradey Dick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	8	12%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	6	17%	-0.12	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Collin Murray-Boyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	11	27%	-0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	0.1	29.6	13.4	30.3	0.1	46.7	145.2
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.2%

DEN +19.0%

TOR -10.2%

TOR -5.8%

DEN +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	14.2	14.2	108.2	106.2	113.6
season	14.8	14.0		119.6	113.3
opponent	14.7	14.1		110.9	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	16.8	13.6	15.3	15.3
TOR	14.1	13.9	13.5	15.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	90	89	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	0	3	15.5	12.5	3.03	14.5	10.9	3.62
Jamal Murray	98	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	15.3	0.0	15.29	14.2	0.0	14.20
Bruce Brown	87	86	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-1	5	15.1	16.9	-1.83	14.5	11.6	2.89
Spencer Jones	87	86	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-1	5	15.1	16.9	-1.83	14.5	11.6	2.89
Tim Hardaway Jr.	92	90	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	1	1	15.2	16.2	-0.94	14.5	10.0	4.52
DaRon Holmes II	83	81	0.28	0.23	0.05	0.22	2	1	1	15.4	14.4	1.05	14.9	10.6	4.35
Jonas Valan?i?nas	58	59	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	0	3	16.1	14.1	1.92	14.1	14.4	-0.33
Jalen Pickett	56	53	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.07	-9	12	-21	17.0	13.0	4.00	14.4	14.0	0.44

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sandro Mamukelashvili	62	64	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-3	3	13.6	15.2	-1.57	16.1	13.7	2.37
RJ Barrett	69	69	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.38	10	-13	23	13.7	15.3	-1.58	16.5	12.4	4.08
Collin Murray-Boyles	83	85	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-7	11	14.0	15.5	-1.52	16.2	9.6	6.54
Ochai Agbaji	51	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	0	-3	14.5	13.8	0.66	15.8	14.8	1.01
Jamison Battle	22	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-6	9	16.0	13.7	2.33	15.9	15.1	0.82
Gradey Dick	57	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	6	-15	13.9	14.6	-0.65	15.0	15.7	-0.68
Ja'Kobe Walter	72	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	0	-3	14.5	13.4	1.13	15.0	16.2	-1.17
Jamal Shead	95	97	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-2	1	14.3	11.0	3.26	15.4	1.0	14.43
Immanuel Quickley	86	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	14.4	12.9	1.45	15.8	11.3	4.52
Brandon Ingram	90	91	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	0	-3	14.5	9.9	4.68	15.4	14.1	1.23
Scottie Barnes	97	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.2	0.0	14.20	15.3	0.0	15.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.38,0.57,0.63,0.51,0.4,0.31,0.47,0.22,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 98, SEA 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.04,0	91.6%
PHI 109, ATL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.54,0.33,0.32,0.11,0.06,0.01,0	90.8%
NJN 99, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.17,0	90.7%