NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Excitement	8.1 [213]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +10.3%
Seattle SuperSonics	93		Comeback	1.4 [453]		LVP	Anthony Peeler (MIN): -21.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.00	14	52%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	15	58%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.04	11	69%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Stephon Marbury	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.07,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	21	51%	0.17	5	-0.22	7	86%	0.04
Tom Hammonds	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.00	8	52%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Micheal Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	14	29%	-0.09	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.09	-0.00	25	56%	0.22	4	-0.12	7	86%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	10	62%	0.06	4	-0.14	1	0%	-0.01
Nate McMillan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	12	54%	-0.02	2	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.12	0.01	6	50%	-0.06	3	-0.14	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	54.8	2.4	30.5	17.7	24.2	1.8	38.1	169.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -10.7%

MIN +8.7%

MIN +35.5%

MIN +18.9%

SEA -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SEA	NBA	MIN	SEA	NBA
this game	17.6	15.4	15.6	111.4	108.1	102.5
season	14.8	15.3		105.3	109.3
opponent	16.2	15.7		102.3	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.9	16.8	19.2	18.8	17.6
SEA	16.9	15.2	14.8	14.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	78	76	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-6	17	16.9	23.3	-6.38	14.9	19.5	-4.61
Sam Mitchell	69	66	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-3	11	16.9	20.3	-3.40	14.3	19.1	-4.85
Stephon Marbury	81	80	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	2	1	17.5	18.9	-1.31	15.2	18.0	-2.76
Anthony Peeler	74	73	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.33	1	4	-3	17.7	17.5	0.18	15.8	13.5	2.23
Kevin Garnett	57	57	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	3	-1	17.6	17.6	0.00	16.9	12.5	4.45
Micheal Williams	25	23	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	0	5	18.4	17.3	1.11	17.0	14.9	2.08
Tom Hammonds	56	55	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	10	-15	19.3	14.7	4.60	15.2	15.9	-0.74

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anthony	43	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-6	7	15.2	15.7	-0.49	17.8	17.5	0.31
Dale Ellis	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-1	-3	18.9	15.0	3.93	18.5	17.5	0.96
Jerome Kersey	20	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.09	-8	3	-11	14.4	15.7	-1.28	13.5	19.0	-5.47
Detlef Schrempf	72	72	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-11	17	15.7	13.8	1.96	17.7	17.3	0.41
Sam Perkins	21	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	2	-9	16.3	15.2	1.13	17.6	17.7	-0.04
Nate McMillan	37	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-7	9	14.8	15.9	-1.04	18.1	17.3	0.75
Hersey Hawkins	76	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	15.6	13.8	1.84	17.4	19.4	-1.98
Vin Baker	76	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	14.9	19.1	-4.15	18.2	13.7	4.45
Gary Payton	75	77	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.42	-7	2	-9	15.4	15.7	-0.34	18.1	14.7	3.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.61,0.37,0.22,0.04,0	93.2%
NJN 99, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.17,0	93.0%
MEM 102, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.3,0.53,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.05,0	92.4%