NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	130		Excitement	8.1 [181]		MVP	Cooper Flagg (DAL): +36.0%
Dallas Mavericks	131		Comeback	1.9 [212]		LVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): -35.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Brown	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.08	0.19	0.01	7	93%	0.30	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Joki?	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.2	0.10	0.09	-0.01	22	66%	0.27	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	4	100%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	21	67%	0.24	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Cameron Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.01	7	57%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09	0.22	-0.07	0.06	13	88%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Pickett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Curtis Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.35	-0.07	-0.30	-0.02	3	40%	-0.30	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cooper Flagg	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.36	0.36	0.23	0.15	0.01	21	77%	0.39	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.19	0.13	0.00	19	70%	0.35	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.05
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	11	65%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Nembhard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.08	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	0.3	26.6	15.5	30.4	0.0	30.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +10.6%

DAL +9.5%

DAL +29.7%

DEN -7.9%

DAL +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	13.7	15.2	14.2	130.0	132.3	113.6
season	14.8	13.8		119.6	109.5
opponent	14.0	14.1		111.6	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	13.9	11.6	16.1	13.7
DAL	12.5	15.5	14.1	19.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cameron Johnson	80	80	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.10	7	-8	15	13.6	14.0	-0.36	14.6	17.9	-3.33
Julian Strawther	56	57	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.22	8	-9	17	14.3	13.0	1.35	15.1	15.4	-0.35
Curtis Jones	18	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-2	3	15.7	13.3	2.39	14.2	15.4	-1.27
Jonas Valan?i?nas	26	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-1	1	16.6	12.7	3.93	16.2	14.8	1.40
Spencer Jones	65	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	6	-13	13.5	14.1	-0.58	14.3	16.9	-2.61
Jalen Pickett	22	21	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.26	-21	20	-41	16.1	13.0	3.05	13.1	15.8	-2.67
Nikola Joki?	100	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	13.7	0.0	13.71	15.2	0.0	15.20
Tim Hardaway Jr.	89	89	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.43	-3	2	-5	14.1	10.8	3.25	14.9	18.0	-3.11
Bruce Brown	86	85	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.33	-9	8	-17	14.0	11.9	2.15	14.7	18.2	-3.51
Jamal Murray	91	92	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.65	-1	0	-1	14.0	10.7	3.34	15.5	11.0	4.52
Peyton Watson	77	77	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.45	-11	10	-21	14.5	11.1	3.35	15.8	13.0	2.89

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cooper Flagg	95	95	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.55	9	-8	17	15.3	13.5	1.77	14.0	8.6	5.38
Anthony Davis	88	88	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.56	8	-7	15	15.6	12.1	3.50	14.1	11.0	3.08
Daniel Gafford	81	81	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.10	17	-16	33	14.8	17.2	-2.40	14.3	11.0	3.35
Caleb Martin	89	88	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-11	23	15.0	17.1	-2.11	14.3	9.1	5.26
Jaden Hardy	69	68	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-13	27	15.6	14.3	1.34	15.1	10.8	4.31
Ryan Nembhard	87	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-10	21	15.4	13.7	1.65	14.2	10.2	4.09
Naji Marshall	90	91	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-2	5	15.5	11.8	3.77	13.9	11.4	2.49
D'Angelo Russell	75	75	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	-2	5	13.7	19.8	-6.06	13.4	14.5	-1.08
Brandon Williams	72	71	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	6	-11	14.0	18.4	-4.46	13.5	14.3	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.72,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.79,0.94,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 99, DET 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.81,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.83,0.75,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.99,1,1	89.7%
WAS 86, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.68,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.94,0.96,1	89.7%
CHI 95, MIL 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.68,0.79,0.53,0.67,0.86,0.98,0.98,1,1	89.4%