NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	5.9 [610]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIL): +19.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	109		Comeback	1.4 [858]		LVP	Kendall Gill (CHI): -20.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.06	-0.03	7	100%	0.26	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Eddie Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.01	7	73%	0.06	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	16	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Linton Johnson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	8	57%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	12	37%	-0.09	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	15	47%	-0.08	4	-0.12	8	75%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.12	0.02	12	79%	0.25	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	13	70%	0.08	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	26	50%	0.01	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.04
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.02	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	12	50%	0.05	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	9	27%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	26.5	15.6	27.2	2.4	30.5	129.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +17.4%

CHI -15.4%

MIL +8.6%

MIL +33.3%

MIL +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.0	15.7	101.1	112.4	100.5
season	15.2	15.3		94.6	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.3	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.4	14.5	15.9	13.4	15.2
MIL	16.1	13.8	15.4	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Robinson	5	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-12	10	16.0	15.1	0.85	11.8	15.2	-3.34
Linton Johnson	21	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-11	8	15.9	15.0	0.86	16.2	14.5	1.70
Jerome Williams	44	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-16	18	15.0	15.3	-0.27	14.1	15.7	-1.68
Eddy Curry	64	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.15	-11	-3	-8	14.9	15.8	-0.89	15.2	14.4	0.79
Kirk Hinrich	62	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-7	0	14.7	16.1	-1.32	14.8	15.2	-0.36
Marcus Fizer	62	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-7	0	14.6	16.4	-1.79	14.7	15.5	-0.81
Kendall Gill	76	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-13	12	15.5	13.9	1.61	15.1	14.4	0.65
Jamal Crawford	64	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	0.11	-24	10	-34	15.6	14.3	1.26	15.1	14.6	0.48
Antonio Davis	72	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.10	-17	3	-20	15.5	14.1	1.38	15.2	14.2	1.04

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	69	68	0.65	-0.14	0.79	-0.06	24	-10	34	15.4	13.8	1.66	15.6	14.0	1.65
Desmond Mason	74	73	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.02	20	-6	26	15.2	14.1	1.16	15.3	14.7	0.68
Michael Redd	83	78	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-3	20	15.0	14.6	0.38	15.4	14.2	1.13
Daniel Santiago	39	39	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.11	15	-1	16	14.2	15.5	-1.36	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Damon Jones	64	61	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	11	-8	14.3	16.3	-2.07	14.1	17.2	-3.16
Dan Gadzuric	63	61	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	14	-14	15.3	14.4	0.86	15.3	14.9	0.44
T.J. Ford	55	54	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	10	-6	15.5	14.3	1.25	15.9	14.2	1.64
Erick Strickland	18	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	13.0	15.4	-2.42	14.6	15.3	-0.70
Joel Przybilla	20	17	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.12	-10	24	-34	15.2	14.9	0.35	14.9	15.3	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.68,0.79,0.53,0.67,0.86,0.98,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 108, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.72,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.85,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.2%
CLE 92, SAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.7,0.52,0.47,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.99,1,1	92.4%
CLE 101, MIL 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.78,0.59,0.67,0.81,0.7,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.98,0.97,0.98,1	91.7%