NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	138		Excitement	4.9 [524]		MVP	Andrew Wiggins (MIA): +15.0%
Miami Heat	135		Comeback	1.2 [328]		LVP	Nikola Jovi? (MIA): -11.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.18	0.02	0.08	12	93%	0.16	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	14	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Daniss Jenkins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07	0.03	0.07	0.02	4	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Cade Cunningham	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.07	-0.04	0.04	-0.07	25	57%	0.17	8	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Javonte Green	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	65%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Holland II	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	6	71%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Ausar Thompson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	56%	0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Ivey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	5	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.24	0.01	0.09	15	79%	0.17	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.03
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.03	9	67%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06	0.06	0.15	0.02	0.11	16	70%	0.13	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	0.01	0.07	17	60%	0.04	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	5	69%	-0.00	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.02	0.05	9	62%	0.06	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	3	29%	-0.01	5	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	0.4	29.5	12.3	30.1	0.0	44.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +51.9%

MIA -14.1%

DET +11.7%

DET +0.4%

DET +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	11.8	14.2	123.2	121.6	113.5
season	14.1	12.8		115.3	113.3
opponent	14.5	14.2		110.4	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.8	14.2	13.8	14.9	13.9
MIA	13.2	11.0	12.3	10.8	11.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Holland II	99	98	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-11	25	14.1	12.7	1.42	12.3	8.2	4.09
Duncan Robinson	110	110	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	14.2	1.0	13.18	11.9	4.0	7.91
Paul Reed	90	90	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	-13	29	14.0	13.8	0.22	12.2	10.4	1.80
Jaden Ivey	78	77	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.02	15	-12	27	13.5	15.0	-1.47	12.3	10.9	1.38
Daniss Jenkins	88	87	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.42	-5	8	-13	14.1	13.5	0.57	12.2	10.5	1.65
Isaiah Stewart	86	85	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.55	-11	14	-25	14.4	12.4	2.03	11.8	12.0	-0.21
Ausar Thompson	91	90	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.59	-14	17	-31	14.7	10.6	4.10	11.6	13.0	-1.49
Cade Cunningham	102	100	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.61	-15	18	-33	14.6	6.9	7.74	11.4	16.1	-4.72
Javonte Green	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	3	-3	14.3	13.8	0.41	11.4	12.0	-0.59
Tobias Harris	83	82	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.58	-17	20	-37	14.6	12.0	2.63	11.7	12.3	-0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norman Powell	99	100	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.62	15	-18	33	11.3	16.0	-4.67	14.7	7.5	7.22
Andrew Wiggins	95	96	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.63	15	-18	33	11.4	14.2	-2.82	14.7	9.2	5.48
Bam Adebayo	95	96	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.63	15	-18	33	11.4	14.2	-2.82	14.7	9.2	5.48
Davion Mitchell	97	97	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.64	15	-18	33	11.4	14.7	-3.29	14.7	8.8	5.94
Nikola Jovi?	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	12	-27	12.7	10.6	2.06	13.5	14.5	-1.01
Kel'el Ware	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.11	-17	14	-31	12.8	10.1	2.67	13.9	14.0	-0.04
Pelle Larsson	97	95	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	2	-7	12.1	9.8	2.35	14.8	9.2	5.62
Tyler Herro	111	112	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	11.8	0.0	11.84	13.9	0.0	13.95
Dru Smith	95	94	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.08	-20	17	-37	12.4	8.4	4.05	13.9	14.1	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 134, GSW 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
ATL 113, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
UTA 101, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%