NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	5.4 [393]		MVP	Nikola Joki? (DEN): +18.9%
Denver Nuggets	122		Comeback	1.7 [544]		LVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): -8.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.20	0.00	0.03	13	79%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	14	70%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	6	81%	0.07	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Davion Mitchell	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	71%	0.09	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Dru Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.04	15	59%	0.03	3	-0.05	9	100%	0.03
Pelle Larsson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Simone Fontecchio	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keshad Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	6	36%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.18	0.01	0.01	18	75%	0.22	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.02	12	75%	0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.01	-0.03	16	63%	0.16	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	10	41%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	43%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	14	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	15	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	7	36%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	1.7	29.9	14.7	29.5	0.7	26.9	133.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +3.3%

DEN +6.9%

DEN +39.6%

DEN +0.5%

MIA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	11.6	15.4	14.2	104.7	115.1	113.6
season	12.7	14.8		113.3	119.6
opponent	14.1	14.5		115.6	111.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	10.1	12.2	12.8	11.6	11.6
DEN	15.1	15.0	13.9	17.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	19	18	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-14	18	10.7	11.8	-1.09	15.7	15.3	0.36
Simone Fontecchio	83	84	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	-0.23	1	-11	12	11.9	10.8	1.03	15.9	13.4	2.53
Keshad Johnson	47	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-6	2	12.7	10.8	1.86	15.7	15.1	0.66
Andrew Wiggins	86	86	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-12	14	11.8	11.1	0.67	16.1	12.4	3.66
Norman Powell	87	87	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.30	2	-12	14	11.7	11.5	0.11	15.9	13.0	2.89
Davion Mitchell	88	88	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-11	12	11.6	11.7	-0.12	15.8	13.1	2.79
Pelle Larsson	66	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	11.7	11.5	0.20	15.1	15.9	-0.78
Nikola Jovi?	78	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	11.5	11.9	-0.36	16.0	13.7	2.36
Dru Smith	75	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-2	-6	11.7	11.6	0.10	15.5	15.1	0.36
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	93	92	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-7	4	11.7	11.5	0.16	15.7	13.0	2.73
Kel'el Ware	100	100	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-2	-6	11.5	13.9	-2.38	15.7	10.5	5.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Joki?	101	101	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	2	6	15.2	18.0	-2.76	12.0	6.0	5.97
Jamal Murray	95	95	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	5	0	15.8	12.0	3.76	11.6	12.1	-0.50
Christian Braun	97	98	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	6	-2	15.5	14.2	1.25	11.9	8.9	3.00
Bruce Brown	99	101	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	6	-2	15.7	11.3	4.37	11.3	17.0	-5.68
Cameron Johnson	66	65	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	4	2	15.1	15.8	-0.69	11.8	11.3	0.50
Aaron Gordon	87	87	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.30	-2	12	-14	15.9	13.0	2.89	11.7	11.5	0.11
Tim Hardaway Jr.	87	88	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	10	-10	15.8	13.3	2.56	11.6	11.8	-0.19
Peyton Watson	87	88	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	10	-10	15.8	13.3	2.56	11.6	11.8	-0.19
Jonas Valan?i?nas	47	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.15	-7	17	-24	17.2	13.9	3.24	10.5	12.5	-1.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.67,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 96, TOR 126	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
DET 88, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
MIN 101, PHX 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%